2022 - Team Ratings After Round 26

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MoSSBODS lifted Collingwood into 4th spot this week, despite their losing, dropping Richmond, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs in the process. It also dropped Brisbane Lions down a spot into 9th, allowing Carlton to take 8th. MoSHBODS also elevated Collingwood, in its case up to 5th at the expense of Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.

Ten teams are still rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.994. The correlation on defence alone is +0.990 and on offence alone +0.994.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

You can see that Geelong put quite a bit of space between itself and Sydney this week, a fact that is also apparent in the static view of the teams’ combined MoSSBODS Ratings, as shown below.

The updated MoSHBODS version shows the same phenomenon.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find both Systems still with a Top 3 of Tigers, Cats, and Swans, while on defence, we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dees, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dockers, and Dees.

Looking just at the Grand Finalists, Geelong and Sydney, we can put their MoSSBODS Ratings in an historical context by comparing them to the Ratings of all Grand Finalists since 1980.

We see that Geelong’s Rating is more consistent with Grand Final winners’ and Sydney’s with Runners’ Up, although there have been Runners Up with higher Ratings than Geelong’s, and winners with lower Ratings than Sydney’s.

Moving back to considering the Ratings of all 18 teams, on MoSSBODS, 9 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 3 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.65, which is again down a little compared to last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only two teams this week, swapping Richmond into 4th at the expense of Brisbane Lions.

Ten teams will finish the season rated as better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda rated just under than mark at 997.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 111 Rating Points, which is up 5 Rating Points on last week. Last season, this gap - which was between Melbourne and North Melbourne - was only about 70 Rating Points.

This year, as last year, the two Grand Finalists are the two highest-rated teams, although the gap between them is much larger this year. In 2021, we had Melbourne Rated 1,034.2 by MARS going into the Grand Final, and Western Bulldogs Rated 1,032.6.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for six of the teams, MoSSBODS for five, and MoSHBODS for three.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 11 teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about 9 teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about 11 teams.

If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Collingwood (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that the range is just two spots or less for 16 of the remaining 17 teams.

The three Systems now have the same ranking for Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs.