2022 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders

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MoSSBODS is something of an outlier this week, at least in terms of its average forecasted Total, but there is quite a bit of variability generally for each of the four games across the four forecasters.

That variability shows in the levels of disagreement about the likely highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Brisbane Lions v Richmond

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Geelong v Collingwood

  • MoSHBODS, TAB and Sportsbet: Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Geelong (tied with Richmond for Sportsbet)

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Collingwood

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Western Bulldogs (tied with Collingwood for Sportsbet)

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found value in two unders bets this week, and would have opted for an overs wager too but for the forecast of showers in Brisbane on Thursday.

The estimated overlays in the games where Investors have wagers range from about 10 to 15 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 23 was a good one for MoSHBODS and the TAB who between them picked up honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across all four categories. MoSHBODS took Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and the TAB took Game Margins and Home Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 31.4 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 0.7 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 16.7 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 55.7 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Game Totals: MoSHBODS 14.2 points ahead of MoSSBODS

It is fairly remarkable that, this far into the season, the MoS twins have the best MAE for three of the four categories, including the all-important Totals category, notwithstanding that they are competing against opening and not closing bookmaker forecasts.

MoSSBODS had six wagers last week, four unders with the TAB that finished 2 and 2, taking it to 28 and 17 with them for the season, and a losing overs wager and winning unders wager with Sportsbet, taking it to 9 and 5 with them for the season.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 5 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 114 from 198 (58%) for the season, and also a 5 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 111 from 198 (56%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 7 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 115 from 198 (58%) for the season against them, and also a 7 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 109 from 198 (55%) for the season against them.

The one-tailed p-values for these results are as follows:

  • 115: 1.4%

  • 114: 2.0%

  • 111: 5.1%

  • 109: 8.8%