It’s Monday night and we have teams, dates, and venues. Almost like a normal season.
All four notional home teams are favourites, according to the bookmakers, which is what you might expect if you scanned recent history, where you’d find that only the 5th vs 8th Elimination Final had produced anything like equally-likely outcomes.
Read MoreThe Dees, in the end, did more than enough against the Cats, and remain in top spot on both Systems, now 1.3 Scoring Shots ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and 4.6 Points ahead of them on MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 11 and Bottom 3 teams.
Read MoreThe average Head-to-Head Probability Predictor tipped 6.4 of the 9 winners this week. MoSSBODS_Marg and Consult The Ladder registered round-best scores of 8 from 9, which saw MoSSBODS_Marg move three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 133 from 198 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 130 from 198 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 128 from 198 (64%).
So the MoS trio continue to fill all three positions on the dais based on the accuracy metric. The irony continues …
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Adelaide by 7.
Essendon by 21 is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
MoSHPlay ends at Saints by 17.
Brisbane by 44, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has switched to Richmond with the final team announcement.
MoSHPlay, so far, is the extreme Margin Predictor in only three games
This week the MoS forecasters are again tipping totals to be, on average, over a goal less than are the bookmakers - and we saw how well that went last week.
Read MoreWe now have the venue and markets for the St Kilda v Fremantle game.
Read MoreThere’s still one game yet to find a venue this week, but let’s look at what we have for the eight games where we do have certainty and markets.
Read MoreThe Dees again clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, despite dropping Rating Points once more, and now find themselves only 0.8 Scoring Shots ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and 2.7 Points ahead of them on MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 7 and Bottom 5 teams, and one more in between.
Read MoreAll of the Head-to-Head Tipsters were at sixes and sevens this week, but in a good way, which left MoSSBODS_Marg still two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 125 from 189 (66%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 123 from 189 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 121 from 189 (64%).
The irony of the MoS trio doing best of all on tipping accuracy, which is a metric I don’t really rate, is not lost on me.
Read MoreWest Coast by 13 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has it as Essendon by 27 points
Melbourne by 54 points is where MoSHPlay has landed
Port Adelaide by 42, and Geelong by 24 is where MoSHPlay has landed
Dogs by 36, according to MoSHPlay
Richmond by only 2 points now, according to MoSHPlay.
At this point, MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor and Head-to-Head Probability Predictor in 5 of the 9 games and also, notably, has broken ranks with the twins on the Fremantle v West Coast game where it’s tipped the Eagles to win by 14 points.
This week, the MoS forecasters are tipping totals to be, on average, over a goal less than are the bookmakers, with differences for individual games ranging from about 3 to about 12 points, and all of them negative. In other words, in every one of the nine games, the MoS twins are forecasting a lower total than are the bookmakers.
Read MoreVery late to publish this week, but that’s all down to the incredibly last-minute finalisation of the venues, with the bulk of them confirmed yesterday and the final two only today (Thursday).
In the end, only one of the games is expected by the bookmakers to finish with a margin under three goals, and that game is the first of the round and between the Cats and the Giants. Across all nine games the average forecast margin is 24.6 points per game.
Read MoreThe Dees clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, despite dropping Rating Points, thanks in part to the Dogs doing the same thing. As well, Brisbane Lions slipped into 3rd spot on MoSSBODS, but remains in 4th on MoSHBODS though they now trail Geelong by only 0.3 points.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 2 and Bottom 10 teams, and a couple in between.
Read MoreIt proved to be a difficult round in which to tip winners, but about equally as difficult for most of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, which left MoSSBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard on 118 from 180 (66%), still two tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and three tips clear of MoSHPlay_Marg.
Read MoreMelbourne by 22 is MoSHPlay’s final word.
Final bid from MoSHPlay is Lions by 13 points.
Still Collingwood, but only by 8 points now
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 17.
Cats by 48 now, according to MoSHPlay.
Here are the current MoSHPlay forecasts. They’re most extreme in only four games, and never by more than 3 points.
Here are the final forecasts for the MoS models after the venue switch for the Hawks v Pies game.
Read MoreA return this week to the more common situation of the MoS twins forecasting, on average, lower totals than the bookmakers, although both groups are forecasting that average to be under 160 points per game.
Read MoreWe’ve markets already for all nine games this week, and the TAB bookmaker expects the average victory margin across the lot of them to be just over three goals. In five games he expects the margin to be under three goals, and in two games over five goals.
Let’s get to the detail.
Read MoreThe Dees finally ran down the Dogs this week on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, leaving both Systems with a Top 3 of Dees, Dogs, and Cats.
In fact, the two Systems now agree about the Top 9 teams after both of them re-ranked 12 teams. The big moves on MoSSBODS were St Kilda up two spots into 10th, and GWS down three spots into 12th. On MoSHBODS we had Melbourne up two spots into 1st, and Carlton up two spots into 9th.
Read MoreWe saw quite a range of outcomes on head-to-head tipping this week, with 6’s and 7’s from the MoS twins, and 4’s and 5’s from everyone else.
That left MoSSBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard on 114 from 171 (67%), two tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and three tips clear of MoSHPlay_Marg.
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