2021 - Team Ratings After Round 22
/The Dees again clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, despite dropping Rating Points once more, and now find themselves only 0.8 Scoring Shots ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and 2.7 Points ahead of them on MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 7 and Bottom 5 teams, and one more in between.
The correlation between MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9978, while the Rating gap between 1st and 8th has narrowed slightly to 5.7 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS and to 18.9 Points on MoSHBODS. Nine teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS as are the same nine teams on MoSHBODS.
On the Component Ratings, on Offence MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have Top 3s of Lions, Dogs, and Dees, while on Defence their shared Top 3s remain as Dees, Cats, and Dogs. MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have the same seven teams rated as above-average on offence, and the same 12 teams rated as above-average on defence.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 2), 6 are rated negatively on both (down 1), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.74, which is down a little on last week’s number.
In the animation below, we can see the path that each team has taken to arrive at its current Rating.
And, in the chart below, we can see how the current crop of teams compares with the Premiers and Runners Up across V/AFL history at the same point in their respective home-and-away seasons. As always, bear in mind that we’ve lost any teams whose home-and-away season didn’t extend as far as 22 rounds.
We can see from this chart that the Dees remain the only teams with Combined Ratings that puts them above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in their respective seasons, and that Sydney, Essendon, and GWS have Ratings that put them in the bottom 10%.
Lastly, to MARS, where we find that the Cats’ have been overhauled by the Lions, who snatched almost 5 Rating Points this week from Collingwood.
As well, Port Adelaide have climbed two spots and grabbed 3rd, while the Dogs have slipped two spots into 5th.
The only other move of more than a single spot this week was Carlton’s two spot decline into 15th.
MARS now has nine teams rated as better-than-average, but only two more rated above 990.
The Rating gap between first and last now stands at 65.5 Rating Points, and that between 1st and 8th at just under 30 Rating Points. 1st and 3rd are separated by only 7 Rating Points, however, and 7th and 11th by less than 9 Rating Points.
The biggest gaps in the Ratings are between 5th and 6th (12.1 Rating Points), 15th and 16th (10.6 Rating points), and between 11th and 12th (8.3 Rating Points).
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest difference for West Coast, where Rating System rankings are relatively lower than Ladder position.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most extreme ranking for 12 teams now.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most extreme ranking for only three teams, and MoSHBODS for only two.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 13 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about the ranking of six teams, and MoSHBODS and MARS also about the ranking of five teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast and Carlton have the widest range of rankings (four spots), while 15 teams have rankings that differ by no more than two spots, including Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, and Sydney, about whom all three Systems agree on a ranking.
