2021 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders

/

This week, the MoS forecasters are tipping totals to be, on average, over a goal less than are the bookmakers, with differences for individual games ranging from about 3 to about 12 points, and all of them negative. In other words, in every one of the nine games, the MoS twins are forecasting a lower total than are the bookmakers.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne v Sydney

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Geelong v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Adelaide

WAGERS

Investors have six unders wagers this week.

The estimated overlays for the six games with wagers range from just under 8 points to 12 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 20 had MoSSBODS recording the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins and Away Team Scores and Totals, and the TAB doing the same for Home Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still with the best season-long performance on Away Team Scores, Sportsbet with the best season-long performances on Game Margins and Game Totals, and the TAB with the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores.

MoSSBODS won three of its four unders wagers last week, all with the TAB. That left it with a 28 and 27 record with the TAB, and a 7 and 8 record with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS finished on the right side of the Totals in 7 games against both the TAB and Sportsbet, leaving MoSSBODS at 97 from 180 (54%) against the TAB, and 94 from 180 (52%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS at 95 from 180 (53%) against the TAB, and 96 from 180 (53%) against Sportsbet.