This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at just over a goal, though with much larger differences in the Eagles v Pies, Dogs v Suns, and Lions v Dons games.

There’s a greater likelihood of larger victory margins this week, with the average expected margin coming in at just over 22 points per game, according to the TAB bookmaker, and with only two games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and one, the Cats v Roos game, expected to be won by 9 goals.

MoSSBODS, despite re-ranking 14 teams this week, left the Top 3 unchanged as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond, and left North Melbourne in bottom spot. MoSHBODS re-ranked 13 teams, but left Western Bulldogs in first, Melbourne in second, and North Melbourne in last place.

Collectively, the Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 5.7 from 9 this week, bolstered by 6 from 9 returns for all three MoS Tipsters, which left them filling the top three spots on the Leaderboard.

Swans by 28, according to MoSHPlay

The MoS twins continue to be the boys who cried ‘unders’, although the gap between their average forecast total and that of the bookmakers is, at least, reducing.

This week they expect the average score to be about 165 points, while the Bookmakers have it about a goal higher

With such a short turnaround this week, I found myself locking in tips and wagers late last night (Monday) before the major adjustments had been made, so you might see some bigger discrepancies between the lines and prices quoted here, and what the markets look like as you read this.

At the time I locked in, the average expected margin of victory for Round 4, according to the TAB bookmaker, was 13.9 points per game, and six games were expected to be decided by less than 3 goals.

It’s the Western Bulldogs who now hold top spot on both MoS Team Rating Systems, ahead of Melbourne. Richmond has 3rd spot on MoSSBODS, but Port Adelaide has it on MoSHBODS.

None of the Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged more than 5 from 9 this week, but three of the four that managed that return were from the MoS stable, which sees them all sitting atop the Leaderboard.

Pies by 11 in the Thursday game, according to MoSHPlay

A business trip to Melbourne had me literally in the air when, I suspect, the markets at the TAB and Sportsbet first posted. I only got to them around 3:30pm, by which time the Totals offered had miraculously aligned, leaving Investors with $1.90 and $1.88 prices for the same risk in each market. Zero diversification benefits, the. But, more of that later.

Perhaps a slightly easier round to tip this week, with the all-game average expected margin at 15.7 points per game, and with all but one of the games expected to be won by about 4 goals or less, the exception being the North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs game, which the away team is expected to win by about 7 goals.

At the end of Round 2, the MoS twins now agree about the Top 4 and the Bottom 3 teams (and five other of the teams in-between).

With all but Control The Ladder and Home Sweet Home bagging 8 from 9 correct tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, it’s almost enough to convince me that “accuracy” might be a reasonable measure of a forecaster’s ability (hint: it absolutely isn’t).

MoSHPlay is very conservative in Game 1 of Round 2

In a welcome development, all nine Totals markets were up on Tuesday morning, so MoSSBODS could choose from a full menu and, given its still relatively bearish outlook on scoring, it liked what it saw.

On paper, tipping winners should be a little harder this week, since the TAB bookmaker all-game average expected margin is down from 16.8 to 14.2 points per game, with 6 of the 9 games expected to be won by under 13 points.

The MoS twins are, by design, big on punishments and rewards during the early rounds of a new season, and this week the Swans and the Lions, in particular, demonstrated that.

All of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, bar Home Sweet Home, correctly selected five or six winners this week, which saw the all-Tipster average come in at 5.3.

MoSHPlay’s first forecast of the season is bold without being ridiculous. That’s a good start.