2021 - Round 2 : A Little More Action

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On paper, tipping winners should be a little harder this week, since the TAB bookmaker all-game average expected margin is down from 16.8 to 14.2 points per game, with 6 of the 9 games expected to be won by under 13 points.

Let’s see what the MoS models make of the round.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, contrarians are very hard to find. Only Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder have tipped other than the favourite in every contest.

Things are a bit more interesting when we look at the Margin Predictors, where we find double-digit ranges for the Cats v Lions (16 points), Hawks v Tigers (18 points), and Dogs v Eagles (13 points) matchups. We even have a lone Predictor, Bookie_9, on the other side of zero in the Blues v Pies game.

Extreme forecasts are fairly evenly distributed, with RSMP_Weighted having four, the MoS twins having three each, and two each for Bookie_3, Bookie_9, and RSMP_Simple.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are double-digit percentage point ranges in the Cats v Lions (17% points) and Dogs v Eagles (12% points) games.

WAGERS

There’s a little more disagreement this week between the MoS twins and the bookmakers, so there’s also more action for Investors. In aggregate, there are four head-to-head wagers totalling almost 11% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and two line wagers totalling just over 3% of the Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then:

  • Geelong win by 10 points or more: 3.3% x 0.6 x 30% + 2.6% x 0.9 x 60% = +2.0%

  • Geelong win by 1 to 9 points: 3.3% x 0.6 x 30% - 2.6% x 60%= -1.0%

  • Geelong draw: 3.3% x (1.6/2 - 1) x 30% - 2.6% x 60%= -1.8%

  • Geelong loss: -3.3% x 30% - 2.6% x 60%= -2.6%

  • Sydney win: 3.8% x 0.52 x 30% = +0.6%

  • Sydney draw: 3.8% x (1.52/2-1) x 30% = -0.3%

  • Sydney loss: -3.8% x 30% = -1.1%

  • Hawthorn win: 0.5% x 3.95 x 30% = +0.6%

  • Hawthorn draw: 0.5% x (4.95/2-1) x 30% = +0.2%

  • Hawthorn loss: -0.5% x 30% = -0.2%

  • Western Bulldogs win by 8 points or more: 3.1% x 0.65 x 30% + 0.6% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.9%

  • Western Bulldogs win by 1 to 7 points: 3.1% x 0.65 x 30% - 0.6% x 60% = +0.2%

  • Western Bulldogs draw: 3.1% x (1.65/2-1) x 30% - 0.6% x 60% = -0.5%

  • Western Bulldogs loss: -3.1% x 30% - 0.6% x 60% = -1.3%

So, worst case is a loss of just over 5% of the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of just over 4%. Much more to play for this week, then.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.