2021 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders

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In a welcome development, all nine Totals markets were up on Tuesday morning, so MoSSBODS could choose from a full menu and, given its still relatively bearish outlook on scoring, it liked what it saw.

The average total per game in Round 1 was just under 170 points, and the bookmakers think that a very similar average will be recorded this week.

The MoS twins, however, have average expected totals about 11 points per game less than the bookmakers’, with especially large discrepancies in the Blues v Pies, Power v Dons, Dogs v Eagles, and Dockers v Giants games.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Geelong v Brisbane Lions

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Port Adelaide v Essendon

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Fremantle v GWS

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Geelong

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Essendon

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Hawthorn

Port Adelaide is again expected by the bookmakers to register a score over 100 points, but this week Richmond joins them in that expectation. The MoS twins have no teams scoring more than 98 points.

WAGERS

With such high levels of MoS-bookmaker disagreement again this week, we’re all over the Totals markets for a second week running, with another 7 unders wagers across the round.

Estimated overlays range from about 9 to 19 points, and you’ll notice that I inadvertently took the 1-point lower TAB total in the Dockers v Giants game, which lessens the overlay there. I at least obtained a $1.90 price, so the expected return is probably about the same. If the total lands on exactly 161 points, however …

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 1, despite being an unprofitable one for Totals betting using MoSSBODS opinions, saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for all four categories: Game Margins, Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

It didn’t help that MoSSBODS chose not to wager in two of the games where acting on its opinion would have been profitable.

MoSSBODS won just one of its two wagers with the TAB, and two of its five with Sporsbet

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 5 from 9 (55%) against the TAB and Sportsbet. MoSHBODS has an identical record against both books.