2021 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders

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This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at just over a goal, though with much larger differences in the Eagles v Pies, Dogs v Suns, and Lions v Dons games.

All four forecasters lowered their average expectation relative to Round 4, leaving the bookmakers at 170 points per game, and the MoS twins at 162 and 163 points per game.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we find a little more disagreement than we did last week, but only about the highest- and lowest-scoring games.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Adelaide v Fremantle

  • TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda v Richmond

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: West Coast v Collingwood

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Hawthorn v Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Geelong

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

After the first profit of the year for the Overs/Unders Fund, we return with another five wagers this week covering the first five games of the round.

Estimated overlays range from the minimum acceptable 6 to a much more comfortable 23 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 4 saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins, MoSHBODS do the same for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, leaving Sportsbet to record lowest MAE for Home Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still with the overall lead on Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS still with the overall lead on Game Margins, and the TAB still with the overall lead on Game Totals.

MoSSBODS won three of its five wagers last week, two of the four with TAB leaving it with an 8 and 12 record for the season with them, and its only wager with Sportsbet leaving it with a 3 and 3 record for the season with them.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 17 from 36 (47%) against the TAB, and 16 from 36 (44%) against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS is 17 from 36 (47%) against both bookmakers.