The Brisbane Lions’ victory over Sydney left minor premiers with a 9 and 9 record in Grand Finals since 2000. The only ladder positions with a better than 50% win rate in Grand Finals are now 2nd, 3rd, and 7th, as you can see in the table at right.
Overall, teams from 1st or 2nd now have a 52% record in Grand Finals, teams from 3rd or 4th a 47% record, and teams from 5th to 8th a 67% record.
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at the Lions by 8 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the Grand Final.
The MoS twins have the Grand Final producing about a goal more than do the Bookmakers.
Read MoreOne of a number of robust discussions I’ve had in the past on Twitter has been about what results constitute “upsets” in sport.
My contention - contentious for some - is that any underdog victory is an upset. You can then add a suitable adjective to convey the magnitude of surprise attached to the upset - hence the term “huge upset”, whose very existence suggests that others have recognised not all upsets are alike.
This week sees Sydney take on Brisbane Lions with Sydney opening as a one goal favourite and since shortening to about half that. Would their defeat be considered an upset? I’d say yes.
Read MoreThe only moves on MoSSBODS this week involved Brisbane Lions climbing above Western Bulldogs, and Port Adelaide falling below Collingwood and Sydney. It means that, as far as MoSSBODS is concerned, the remaining two teams in the competition are ranked 2nd and 6th.
MoSHBODS reranked only two teams, dropping Port Adelaide below Collingwood. So, for MoSHBODS the remaining two teams in the competition are ranked 3rd and 7th.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 10th are now separated by only 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 22 points.
MoSHBODS reranked seven teams across three separate transactions, swapping the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Cats, and the Power into 5th ahead of the Pies, as well as dropping GWS to 11th, allowing Fremantle, St Kilda, and Carlton to each rise one spot.
At the end of it all, the MoS twins agree about the ranking of the Top 8 and Bottom 3 teams, and disagree by a single spot about the ranking of just four teams.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 10th are now separated by only 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 20 points.
Read MoreIt was yet another round with a fifty percent record for home teams as 1st defeated 2nd to improve their winning percentage in such Preliminary Final clashes to 89%, and 5th defeated 3rd to start that pairing off in the best possible way for the team without the double chance.
Overall, teams from 1st or 2nd now have a 65% record in Preliminary Finals, teams from 3rd or 4th a 38% record, and those from 5th or 6th a 30% record.
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the Preliminary Finals
The MoS twins have similar Totals forecasts tothe bookmakers in the Swans v Power clash, but considerably higher forecasts in the Cats v Lions contest.
Read MoreThis week sees a regular Preliminary Final matchup in 1st playing 2nd alongside a first-time matchup (since 2000) in 3rd playing 5th.
First has a 70% win rate over second, but also a superior record against all-comers (71% v 57% for second).
Fifth has appeared only four times in a Preliminary Final, and then only against second where its record is 1 and 3. Third has fared excellently against fourth but is at just less than parity with first. Overall it has a 63% win rate in Preliminary Finals.
Read MoreThe only moves on MoSSBODS this week involved Port Adelaide clambering over Collingwood and Sydney to claim 5th spot on the Leaderboard behind, in order, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, and Geelong. It means that, as far as MoSSBODS is concerned, the remaining four teams in the competition are ranked 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th.
MoSHBODS reranked seven teams across three separate transactions, swapping the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Cats, and the Power into 5th ahead of the Pies, as well as dropping GWS to 11th, allowing Fremantle, St Kilda, and Carlton to each rise one spot.
At the end of it all, the MoS twins agree about the ranking of the Top 8 and Bottom 3 teams, and disagree by a single spot about the ranking of just four teams.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 10th are now separated by only 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 20 points.
Read MoreIt was another round with a fifty percent record for home teams as 2nd defeated 7th to maintain its perfect record over them in semi-finals, and 5th defeated 4th to move their record nearer parity.
Overall, teams from 1st to 4th now have a 74% record against teams from 5th to 8th in semi-finals.
With some contrarianism amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters in the Giants v Lions game, five Tipsters scored 1 from 2 and four others 0 from 2, cutting MoSHPlay_Marg’s lead to two over RSMP_Simple, and three over RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 0.6 from 2, taking the season-long figure to 130.5 from 213 (61%). rs for the week were the teams from all the odd positions - 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th - which left the statistics for the eight ladder positions in Week 1 of Finals since 2000 as shown at right.
The all-Tipster average for the round obviously came in at 2 from 4, taking the season-long figure to 129.9 from 211 (62%).
MoSHPlay_Marg now has a three tip lead over RSMP_Simple, and looks very hard to catch with just nine games left in the season.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 127.9 from 207 (62%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 10 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Hawthorn by 14 points
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views about the semi-finals
The MoS twins have lower Totals forecasts than the bookmakers in the Giants v Lions clash, while MoSSBODS is higher and MoSHBODS lower than the bookmakers the Power v Hawks game.
Read MoreThere’s a very real possibility that we’'ll see straight sets exits for Port Adelaide and GWS this weekend, with the Power about 40% underdogs in their clash with the Hawks, and the Giants only just over 50% chances against the Lions.
That would go somewhat against history since, as you can see in the table at right, from 2000 to 2023 teams from 2nd are undefeated against teams from 7th, and teams from 4th have a 7-4 lead over teams from 5th.
Read MoreIn defeating the Dogs, the Hawks took #1 spot on both MoS Rating Systems this week.
The big movers were Geelong, up 3 into 4th on MoSSBODS and up 3 into 3rd on MoSHBODS, and Port Adelaide, down 3 into 7th on MoSSBODS and down 3 into 6th on MoSHBODS.
Carlton, despite playing Finals, looks at though it’ll finish the season in 10th or 11th on both Systems, while GWS, despite a Top 4 finish, find themselves ranked 11th on MoSSBODS and 8th on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 11th are now separated by only just under 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 18 points.
Read MoreIt was two wins and two losses for home teams this week, all of which were favourites. With no contrarianism at all that meant all nine Head-to-Head Tipsters registered two from four and allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to maintain its three tip lead over RSMP_Simple, now with only five games to play.
The four winners for the week were the teams from all the odd positions - 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th - which left the statistics for the eight ladder positions in Week 1 of Finals since 2000 as shown at right.
The all-Tipster average for the round obviously came in at 2 from 4, taking the season-long figure to 129.9 from 211 (62%).
MoSHPlay_Marg now has a three tip lead over RSMP_Simple, and looks very hard to catch with just nine games left in the season.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 127.9 from 207 (62%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Lions by 25 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by a goal
MoSHPlay ends at Power by 20 points and has some preliminary thoughts about the remainder of the round
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on Thursday night’s game
As, no doubt, a number of you have already realised, I forgot about the bye week again this year and, as a result, assessed the weather for potential overs wagers against what was expected at the relevant venues a week ago.
Having reassessed them early on Sunday morning using more up to date forecasts, I have now added a further overs wager to the portfolio based on the following details.
Read MoreThe MoS twins have higher Totals forecasts than the bookmakers in all but the Sydney Derby this week and, as a result, have an average expected Total three points higher than they.
Read MoreUnsurprisingly, all four home teams are favourites in the first week of the Finals, though to see one of them about a three-and-a-half goal favourite does maybe cause one eyebrow to twitch. In the three other games the expected margins are between about half-a-goal and a goal-and-a-half.
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