2024 - Round 26 : Straight Sets?

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There’s a very real possibility that we’'ll see straight sets exits for Port Adelaide and GWS this weekend, with the Power about 40% underdogs in their clash with the Hawks, and the Giants only just over 50% chances against the Lions.

That would go somewhat against history since, as you can see in the table at right, from 2000 to 2023 teams from 2nd are undefeated against teams from 7th, and teams from 4th have a 7-4 lead over teams from 5th.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters has come from Consult the Ladder and Home Sweet Home in the 1st game, and the RSMP twins and MoSSBODS_Marg in the 2nd game..

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve a double-digit forecast range in only the Giants v Lions game

MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_9 have Extreme Predictor status in two games each this week, preventing any other algorithm from taking the same status.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there’s on one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast range and that is, again, the Giants v Lions game.

MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have Extreme Predictor status in two games each this week.

WAGERS

Just two bets this week, both of them in the line market, and both of them on the away team.

There were no shenanigans at all this week, perhaps suggesting that I’ve now lost enough that the hypothesis I have special knowledge can firmly be rejected at the 0.01% level.

In total, Investors have just over 5% of the original Line Fund on two teams: Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Investors therefore have the following potential scenarios:

  • 1st Game: Hawthorn win by 8 points or more +0.8c; otherwise -0.8c

  • 2nd Game: Brisbane Lions win, draw or lose by 1 to 4 points +2.4c; otherwise -2.7c

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 3.2c, while a worst case set would snip another 3.5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.