2024 - Round 25 Results - Situation Normal
/It was two wins and two losses for home teams this week, all of which were favourites. With no contrarianism at all that meant all nine Head-to-Head Tipsters registered two from four and allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to maintain its three tip lead over RSMP_Simple, now with only five games to play.
The four winners for the week were the teams from all the odd positions - 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th - which left the statistics for the eight ladder positions in Week 1 of Finals since 2000 as shown at right.
The all-Tipster average for the round obviously came in at 2 from 4, taking the season-long figure to 129.9 from 211 (62%).
With the 80-point blowout in the Friday night game, margin prediction was much harder this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from Bookie_Hcap’s 35.3 points per game to MoSSBODS_Marg’s 41.7 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 37.4 points per game, which is more than 10 points per game higher than last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 27.3 points per game per predictor.
There were no movements on the Margin Predictor Leaderboard.
The gap between 1st and 7th is now 72 points, but only 27 points separate 1st and 5th.
Log probability scores were all slightly positive for the bookie-based forecasters and slightly negative for the MoS trio this week, and very nearly equal for all six forecasters, which left the order unchanged on the Leaderboard.
WAGERING
It was a return to loss-making this week with both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds generating losses with only two collects from six wagers.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by just over 4c, which leaves it down now by 30c on the season, that from a -8.5% ROT on a 3.5 turn.
