2024 - Team Ratings After Round 25
/In defeating the Dogs, the Hawks took #1 spot on both MoS Rating Systems this week.
The big movers were Geelong, up 3 into 4th on MoSSBODS and up 3 into 3rd on MoSHBODS, and Port Adelaide, down 3 into 7th on MoSSBODS and down 3 into 6th on MoSHBODS.
Carlton, despite playing Finals, looks at though it’ll finish the season in 10th or 11th on both Systems, while GWS, despite a Top 4 finish, find themselves ranked 11th on MoSSBODS and 8th on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 11th are now separated by only just under 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 18 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9956 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.75 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now with Top 3s of Hawks, Cats, and Dogs, while on defence, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have Top 3s of Hawks, Dogs, and Lions.
MoSSBODS now has eight teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS has 11. Also, MoSSBODS has 13 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has 11.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 9.6 scoring shots (about 35 points) and defensive ratings a range of 10.8 scoring shots (about 39 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 34 points and defensive ratings a range of about 41 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), only 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.79, which is down a touch again on last week, but still quite high. It means that about two-thirds of the variability in teams’ MoSSBODS defensive ratings can be explained by the teams’ offensive rating.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked five teams this week, but left Sydney in 1st. Below them, Brisbane Lions moved back into 2nd ahead of Western Bulldogs, and Geelong and GWS moved up at the expense of Port Adelaide.
Between them, the eight teams playing Finals still fill the Top 8 places.
Just over 17 Rating Points separate the six teams that remain in contention for the Flag. By way of comparison, at the end of Week 1 of the Finals in 2023, 24 Rating Points separated the six teams still in contention, with Brisbane Lions in 1st in 1,030.8, and GWS in 10th at 1,006.8. Above them and still in contention were Carlton on 1,014.4.
There are now 13 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 4 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 6, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 9.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Sydney has the widest range of rankings at six spots, and that there are four other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.
There are also now three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast.
