2024 - Round 27 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins have similar Totals forecasts tothe bookmakers in the Swans v Power clash, but considerably higher forecasts in the Cats v Lions contest.

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has an overs wager on that Cats v Lions game … even though it shouldn’t, because rain is forecast for Melbourne for Saturday.

I inadvertently applied the WoSHBODS rule that allows overs wagers in games expected to be rain-affected when the estimated overlay exceeds a goal and, by long-established MoS precedent, that bet stands as part of the record.

The estimated overlay for the game where we have the wager is 14 points, and the bet size is 4.6% of the original Over/Under Fund.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared again this week, with MoSSBODS taking Game Margins, and the TAB taking Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and sharing Away Team Scores with Sportsbet.

The TAB continues to head all four metrics, with leads as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 13 points ahead of Sportsbet and 125 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 22 points ahead of MoSHBODS and Sportsbet

Away Team Scores: TAB 10 points ahead of Sportsbet and 29 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: TAB 11 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 93 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had wagers on two games last week, a losing overs bet with the TAB, and a losing unders bet with Sporsbet.

It ended then at 32 and 42 with the TAB, and at 21 and 14 with Sportsbet, for an overall 53 and 56 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 0 from 2 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 114 from 213 (54%) against TAB, and 116 from 213 (55%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 0 from 2 against the TAB, which took it to 106 from 213 (50%) against them, and 1 from 2 against Sportsbet, which took it to 107 from 213 (50%) against them for the season.

Here’s the updated week-by-week forecasting performance of the twins, and the wagering performance of MoSSBODS.

MoSSBODS is therefore:

  • 82 and 57 (59%) against the TAB in games where it hasn’t wagered

  • 95 and 83 (53%) against the Sportsbet in games where it hasn’t wagered

The missed TAB opportunities is definitely something worthy of analysis during the off-season.