2024 - Round 25 : Misplaced Optimism

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Unsurprisingly, all four home teams are favourites in the first week of the Finals, though to see one of them about a three-and-a-half goal favourite does maybe cause one eyebrow to twitch. In the three other games the expected margins are between about half-a-goal and a goal-and-a-half.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters is non-existent, so there’ll be no movement at all on the Leaderboard.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in two games this week: Power v Cats (19 points), and Lions v Blues (16 points).

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in three games this week, and no other forecaster has that status in more than a single game.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Power v Cats (18% points), and Lions v Blues (13% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE have Extreme Predictor status in three games each this week.

WAGERS

The dollars are flying out the door again this week, hopefully to return with as many friends as they did last week.

Shenanigans were plentiful:

  • Port Adelaide: Wanted 7.8% at $1.55. Settled for 1.4% at that price and 6.2% at $1.52. Also wanted 6.6% at $1.90 -10.5 and settled for 1.4% at -10.5, 1.4% at -11.5, and 3.1% at -12.5 (all at $1.90)

  • Brisbane Lions: Wanted 5.7% at $1.90 -20.5. Grudgingly accepted 1.4% at -20.5, 1.4% at -21.5, and 2.1% at -22.5 (all at $1.90)

In total, Investors have just over 9% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on three teams, and just under 13% of the original Line Fund on team teams, two of which are in common.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner reveals that Port Adelaide carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win by 13 points or more and a loss represents 10.2% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by Brisbane Lions (7.7%), Western Bulldogs (2.7%), and then GWS (0.9%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 9.5c, while a worst case set would snip almost 12c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.