AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 7

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In this blog we’ll record the results of our first attempt this season to project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then so the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 8

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We are, at last, back to nine game rounds where the markets are posted roughly all at once and early in the week, which means that I won’t need to spend time every day from now until Sunday waiting for fresh markets to be put on display, fresh from the oven.

Here are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about those nine games, which include forecast wins by seven away teams. Six of those seven are bookmaker favourites, the exception being Gold Coast, who the bookmakers have installed as 3 to 4 point favourites.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 11:40AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS in interested in two of today’s three games and has taken:

  • North Melbourne v Sydney: 0.9% u79.5 @ $1.87

  • GWS v Adelaide: 0.9% u73.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 3:30PM SATURDAY

… and two more in two games for WoSHBODS:

  • Brisbane v Gold Coast: 2.1% o76.5 @ $1.90

  • Fremantle v Carlton: 1.5% u69.5 @ $1.90

UPDATE 12:30PM SATURDAY

I think we all knew that WoSHBODS’ restraint was only ever going to be temporary, and it is, indeed, firing wagers in both of the games for which Totals are up. It has:

  • Hawthorn v West Coast: 3.1% o77.5 @ $1.87

  • Richmond v Geelong: 0.2% u73.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 11AM FRIDAY

Just in case you’ve been wondering about the lack of an unders/overs post this week, the reason’s been that WoSHBODS, in stark contrast to last week, has found no value in anything so far on offer.

The estimated overlays in the first four games of the round have been 0.02, 1.7, 1.5, and 0.04 points, which, when assessed at the prices offered, has resulted in -EV in every case.

Perhaps tomorrow …

AFLW 2024 - Round 7 and 7.1/Week 7

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Week 7 sees us back to an 11 game round, but this will again require me to make regular updates here. So, as per the last few weeks, please come back and visit often.

To begin with, here are WoSHBODS thoughts for the 9 games this week that involve every team only once. I’ll provide the forecasts for the other three games once the teams involved have played their first game of the week and I am able to update their ratings to reflect those results.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE SUNDAY 10AM

WoSHBODS has actually shown a little restraint this morning and passed on one of the games:

  • Gold Coast v Essendon: no bet (Total offered is 73.5)

  • Sydney v Geelong: 3% o74.5 @1.87

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:50PM

Again only a TAB market up with about 30 minutes to game time (and dinner on the way), so WoSHBODS has gone with:

  • Carlton v Brisbane Lions: 6% o62.5 @1.90

UPDATE SATURDAY 4:50PM

With two markets to choose from this time, WoSHBODS has gone with:

  • West Coast v Port Adelaide: 0.5% o71.5 @1.85

UPDATE SATURDAY 2:50PM

With only about 15 minutes to game time, only the TAB has a Totals market posted. WoSHBODS likes it.

  • Richmond v Collingwood: 5.2% o52.5 @1.87

UPDATE SATURDAY 12:30PM

Do we? Of course we do:

  • North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs: 2.0% o64.5 @1.87

UPDATE FRIDAY 10:15AM

Lest you were fretting that WoSHBODS might’ve ignored the opportunity, tonight we have:

  • Adelaide v St Kilda: 3.4% u74.5 @1.85

UPDATE THURSDAY 12:30PM

Tonight we have:

  • Melbourne v GWS: 1.2% o78.5 @1.87

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 4:30PM

Tonight we have:

  • Hawthorn v Gold Coast: 1.1% o93.5 @1.87

  • Essendon v Sydney: 0.2% u80.5 @1.85

UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT

As I recorded here earlier while on a train between Newcastle and Sydney, tonight we had:

  • Geelong v Fremantle: 3.7% u80.5 @1.87

AFLW 2024 - Round 6 and 6.1/Week 6

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Week 6 is the first and only “round” with 12 games in it, which will again require me to make regular updates here. So, as per the last few weeks, please come back and visit often.

To begin with, here are WoSHBODS thoughts for the 9 games this week that involve every team only once. I’ll provide the forecasts for the other three games once the teams involved have played their first game of the week and I am able to update their ratings to reflect those results.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 5 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 12:15pM sunDAY

Four more games, three more wagers:

  • GWS v West Coast: 0.4% of the Fund o77.5 @ $1.87 (rain is forecast, but for the evening, and the estimated overlay is greater than 6 points)

  • Brisbane v Adelaide: 0.2% of the Fund u82.5 @ $1.87

  • North Melbourne v Richmond: No bet (offered 70.5)

  • Port Adelaide v Carlton: 1% of the Fund o67.5 @ $1.85 (no rain forecast)

UPDATE 11:45AM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS continues to like what it sees in the Totals markets and today has opted for:

  • Collingwood v Gold Coast: 2.5% of the Fund o77.5 @ $1.87

  • Essendon v Melbourne: 1.4% of the Fund u81.5 @ $1.87

  • St Kilda v Fremantle: 4.9% of the Fund u76.5 @ $1.90

  • Western Bulldogs v Sydney: 0.3% of the Fund o77.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE 10:45AM THURSDAY

Both bookmakers are continuing to pursue a just-in-time approach to posting Totals markets, so all we have today is the market for tonight’s game.

To summarise the wagering so far in the round, we have:

  • (Tuesday) Richmond v Port Adelaide: 2.4% of the Fund u72.5 @ $1.87 (Total Scored: 75. Bet lost)

  • (Wednesday) Carlton v North Melbourne: No bet (Totals offered: 67.5/68.5. Total Scored: 89)

  • (Thursday) Geelong v Hawthorn: 0.8% of the Fund o85.5 @ $1.90

AFLW 2024 - Round 5 and 5.1/Week 5

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Week 5 is another “round” with 11 games in it, which will require me to make regular updates here. So, again, please come back and visit often.

To begin with, here are WoSHBODS thoughts for the 9 games this week that involve every team only once. I’ll provide the forecasts for the other two games once the teams involved have played their first game of the week and I am able to update their ratings to reflect those results.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS after a 1 and 2 Saturday Totals performance is, again, ridiculously active in the Totals markets, and has:

  • Adelaide v Essendon: 5.6% of the Fund u83.5 @ $1.90

  • Collingwood v Western Bulldogs: 0.2% of the Fund u78.5 @ $1.85

  • Sydney v Greater Western Sydney: 1.4% of the Fund o78.5 @ $1.87

  • West Coast v Brisbane: 2.2% of the Fund u83.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 11:50AM SATURDAY

It’s about 20 minutes to game time, and Sportsbet have no posted Totals market for the Suns v Cats game, so WoSHBODS has considered only the TAB’s offering and has responded with a small unders wager.

Sportsbet has, however, posted Totals markets for the two other games today, and WoSHBODS has also found value in those.

It has:

  • Gold Coast v Geelong: 1.1% of the Fund u79.5 @ $1.90

  • St Kilda v Hawthorn: 0.8% of the Fund o75.5 @ $1.85 (with rain forecast and the estimated overlay only 3.5 points, this bet should not have been placed. Then again, we’ve done so well with overs bets …)

  • Fremantle v Melbourne: 6.3% of the Fund u76.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 9:45AM FRIDAY

If losing wasn’t enough to deter WoSHBODS, a small win last night was certainly not going to discourage it, and so we find ourselves with yet another wager on tonight’s game

  • 2.9% of the Fund o72.5 @ $1.85

And, yes, it’s another overs wager, the likely efficacy of which is reflected in the table at right, which shows the relative performance of the two forms of Totals wagering so far this season.

UPDATE 11:30AM THURSDAY

Completely ignoring its recent performance, WoSHBODS has waded into the Totals market for tonight’s game:

  • 1.3% of the Fund u74.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE 2:30PM WEDNESDAY

We have a wager on the traditional Wednesday 7:15pm game:

  • 7.1% of the Fund u83.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE 5:15PM TUESDAY (SiC)

We have a wager on tonight’s game:

  • 5.6% of the Fund o73.5 @ $1.90

AFLW 2024 - Round 4 (Week 4?)

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This week we commence the “rounds” of football that break code that has reliably handled over 120 years of men’s and women’s football because that code relies on one principle: each team shall play no more than one game per round.

For the next four weeks the competition will be structured around weeks, with each week involving 10 or 11 games, thereby requiring 4 or 6 teams to play twice in the same week.

That will require me to make regular updates here, so please come back and visit often.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 3 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has nibbled at the Totals market in both the remaining games

  • In Essendon v St Kilda: 1.8% u76.5 @ $1.85

  • In GWS v Gold Coast: 2% o79.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS, undeterred by its 1 and 4 overs record has taken:

  • In Adelaide v Hawthorn: 1.2% u77.5 @ $1.85

It’s passed on the Melbourne v North Melbourne game and is awaiting Totals markets for the final two games of the round

UPDATE 12:15PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS likes what it sees in the Totals markets on all three games today and has taken:

  • In Sydney v Richmond: 1.4% u77.5 @ $1.85

  • In Carlton v Geelong: 2% o69.5 @ $1.85 (note that rain is forecast for this game but the estimated overlay exceeds a goal, so overs betting is permitted)

  • In Port Adelaide v Fremantle: 5.4% u80.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 2:30PM FRIDAY

Just a quick note to advise that we had no bet on yesterday’s game, purely because I thought it was a Friday game and that rain was therefore expected, which would have meant our estimated overlay of 2.6 would have been insufficeint to overcome the women’s rain rule.

Had I known, we would have had a small overs bet on that game, but that’s all by-the-by now.

Today we have the smallest of unders wagers: 0.3% of the Fund u82.5 @ $1.85

AFLW 2024 - Round 3

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WoSHBODS this week agrees with the experts about which team should be favourite in every contest except the last, where WoSHBODS favours the home team. and the experts narrowly favour Gold Coast.

In three games, WoSHBODS is forecasting a larger margin of victory for the favourites, in four it is forecasting a smaller margin of victory, and in one it is forecasting roughly the same margin of victory as the experts.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 2 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE NOON SATURDAY

Undaunted by our two distastrous forays into the Totals market so far, WoSHBODS has returned today with four more wagers:

  • 4.9% of the Fund o74.5 @ $1.87 on the Gold Coast v Carlton game

  • 4.4% of the Fund u86.5 @ $1.85 on the North Melbourne v Geelong game

  • 2.9% of the Fund o80.5 @ $1.87 on the St Kilda v Sydney game

  • 3.5% of the Fund u83.5 @ $1.87 on the Fremantle v Adelaide game

(At last - some unders bets!)

UPDATE 9:30AM SATURDAY

We currently have markets from both bookmakers for the next two games and have taken:

  • 6.9% of the Fund o78.5 @ $1.85 on the Melbourne v Brisbane game

UPDATE 2PM FRIDAY

As I type this, with only one-and-a-half hours until the first centre-bounce, Sportsbet has no over/under markets for any AFLW game.

The TAB is only mildly more advanced, but does have one for this afternoon’s game, which currently is:

  • o67.5 $1.87 / u67.5 $1.87 (if you want to infer what this means for individual team scores, the current line is +16.5 and $1.87/$1.87)

WoSHBODS has an estimated total for this game of 89 and so has taken the overs despite forecast rain for the MCG. You’ll recall that WoSHBODS is permitted to take overs in AFLW games with forecast rain provided the estimated overlay exceeds 6 points, which it does here.

So, the first AFLW unders/overs wager for 2024 is 7% of the Fund o67.5 @ $1.87.

AFLW 2024 - Round 2

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The WoSHBODS algorithm is very sensitive to Round 1 results - far moreso than MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS - on the basis that history strongly suggests that the previous season’s performances are somewhat less relevant in the following AFLW season than they are in AFLM.

Somewhat comfortingly, these largish adjustments have led to forecasts with seven of the nine WoSHBODS-favoured teams also being the bookmaker favourites.

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