AFLW 2024 - Round 3 Results - More Encouragement

WoSHBODS tipped 7.5 winners this week and also recorded a Margin MAE of 22.3 points per game and a Totals MAE of 18.5 points per game, which took the season-long figures to 16 from 27 (59%) for accuracy, 27.0 for Margin MAE, and 18.0 for Totals MAE.

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WAGERS

Again this week, only the Line Fund was profitable, but this week it was unable to completely erase the weighted losses of the Head-to-Head and Over/Unders Funds. As a result, the Combined Portfolio fell by 0.6c to be up now by 1.1c, that on a +2.7% ROI and a 0.4 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

Thanks to St Kilda scoring against Essendon, we can finally rank teams based on their Q1 Performances. The metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder rankings are:

• MoS Win Production Function: +0.94

• Goals Scored: +0.9

• % of Quarters Won: +0.87

• Points Scored: +0.87

• Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.83

• Q2 Performances: +0.8

• Points Conceded: +0.78

• Goals Conceded: +0.75

• Scoring Shots Generated: +0.74

• Q3 Performances: +0.72

The metrics least correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.38

• Q4 Performances: +0.49

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.5

Based on this early evidence, I’d suggest that the competition will be decided more on offence than defence this season.

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And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It reveals that:

• there are only three undefeated and three winless teams

• no team has recorded more than 2.3 goals per quarter

• no team has conceded more than 2.3 goals per quarter

• Sydney has converted at over 65% and allowed opponents to convert at only 44%

• Adelaide has allowed opponents to convert at only 32%

• Melbourne has allowed opponents to convert at 65%

• Fremantle have scored only 2% of their points in Q1, Melbourne 4% in Q2, Collingwood 4% in Q3, and Essendon 4% and Port Adelaide 8% in Q4

• Essendon have conceded only 1% of the total they’ve conceded in Q1

These are, of course, very early trends, and subject to very large sampling variance. More on more metrics when we have more data.

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