AFLW 2024 - Round 8

We are, at last, back to nine game rounds where the markets are posted roughly all at once and early in the week, which means that I won’t need to spend time every day from now until Sunday waiting for fresh markets to be put on display, fresh from the oven.

Here are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about those nine games, which include forecast wins by seven away teams. Six of those seven are bookmaker favourites, the exception being Gold Coast, who the bookmakers have installed as 3 to 4 point favourites.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

• Under 2 goals: 4 games

• From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games

• Over 4 goals: 3 games

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WoSHBODS Wagering

WoSHBODS has head-to-head wagers in all nine games, although four of those wages are for 0.4% of the Head-to-Head Fund or less, and are therefore largely inconsequential (even though one of them is for GWS at $34). Two of the bets are, however, quite consequential: a 6% wager on Fremantle at $1.40, and a 9.3% wager on Adelaide at $1.08.

There are also seven line wagers ranging in size from 0.2% to 6%, with the largest on Fremantle and Adelaide.

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Altogther, just under 23% of the original Head-to-Head Fund is at risk, and just under 16% of the original Line Fund, which means that about 16% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 16 wagers. A best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just under 13c.