Unsurprisingly, all four home teams are favourites in the first week of the Finals, though to see one of them about a three-and-a-half goal favourite does maybe cause one eyebrow to twitch. In the three other games the expected margins are between about half-a-goal and a goal-and-a-half.
Read MoreMoSSBODS kept its Top 1 and 3 as the Dogs and the Lions, but switched the Hawks into 2nd from 4th and moved the Power from 2nd to 4th. In contrast, MoSHBODS kept its Top 4 unchanged as Dogs, Hawks, Power, and then Lions.
Read MoreSeven of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 24, but the best scorers amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters went one better, and were recorded by MoSHPlay_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg. Everyone else scored that 7 from 9 except Home Sweet Home, who scored just 5.
MoSHPlay_Marg now has a three tip lead over RSMP_Simple, and looks very hard to catch with just nine games left in the season.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 127.9 from 207 (62%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Power by 4 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 2 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 21 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 30 points and Swans by 16 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 51 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Hawksby 58 points (and has some new preliminary views about the Sunday games)
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 7 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on Round 24
Between them, the MoS twins differ by no more than two points in their Totals forecasts this week. Similarly, the two bookmakers differ between themselves by no more than a single point. The big differences come when you compare a MoS twin to a bookmaker where you can find a few gaps larger than a goal, and one as large as two goals.
In all but two of the games the MoS twins have lower Total forecasts than the bookmakers and, on average overall, they’re between 1 and 3 points below the bookmakers.
Read MoreFive of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by 14 points or fewer, and the other four by between about 20 and 50 points. For the former, the teams involved are separated by between 2 and 7 places on the ladder, and for the latter between 10 and 14 places on the ladder, except for the Lions v Dons game where the gap is 6 ladder spots but the expected margin is 6 goals.
The all-game average expected margin is 21.3 points per game, which is up by about four-and-a-half points per game on last week.
Read MoreMoSSBODS kept its Top 4 unchanged this week as Dogs, Power, Lions, and Hawks, while MoSHBODS continued to tinker, ending with the same four teams but ordered Dogs, Lions, Power, and Hawks.
Altogether MoSSBODS reranked 12 teams and MoSHBODS 15 in a continuation of the extraordinary levels of churn we’ve seen this season, thanks to the ridiculously close nature of the competition. On MoSSBODS, nine of those 12 teams moved multiple spots, the biggest movers being Carlton up 4 into 6th, St Kilda and Melbourne up 3 into 11th and 12th, and Geelong and Fremantle down 3 into 8th and 10th.
On MoSHBODS, 11 of the 15 teams moved multiple spots, including Carlton up 5 into 6th, Melbourne up 4 into 11th, and Geelong, Fremantle, and Adelaide, down 3 into 8th, 10th, and 13th.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 6 Scoring Shots (which is about 22 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 13th are separated by only 20 points.
Read MoreAn above-average six of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 23, and the best scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters was exactly that and recorded by all but the MoS trio.
They recorded only only 5 from 9, which saw MoSHPlay_Marg’s lead over RSMP_Simple at the top of the Leaderboard cut to two tips. RSMP_Weighted is one tip further back, in third.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 120.9 from 198 (61%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 8 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 41 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by an even 50 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Port by 17 points and Cats by 9 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 20 points and Giants by 27 points (and has fresh preliminary views on the Sunday games)
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on Round 23 games.
The MoS twins are slightly more in agreement this week although they still differ by as much as 4 or 5 points in their Totals forecasts for a couple of games. MoSHBODS has the higher Total forecast of the pair in all but one game, and has an average expected Total two points per game higher than MoSSBODS.
The bookmakers, again, have even higher Totals expectations, and have come in a point per game higher than MoSHBODS overall.
Read MoreSeven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by no more than about 2 goals, despite involving teams separated by as much as 13 ladder positions in the case of the Adelaide Derby, and by 9 or 10 spots in two other cases. The two remaining games both involve teams separated by exactly 10 ladder positions, but carry expected margins of around 6 to 7 goals.
The all-game average expected margin is 16.8 points per game, which is up by about tw-and-a-half points per game on last week.
Read MoreWith the Lions and Dogs both losing this week despite registering more scoring shots than their respective opponents, and the Swans winning despite registering fewer scoring shots than their opponents, the extent to which you’re likely to agree with the latest MoS Team Ratings is going to heavily depend on the extent to which you agree with analyses that show scoring shot conversion is largely, though not entirely, random.
Both MoS Systems, given their respective in silico philosophies, thought the Dogs did enough to retain top spot, albeit after a Rating decline, while MoSSBODS was happy to keep the Lions in 2nd, but MoSHBODS dropped them to 3rd in favour of Port Adelaide.
Altogether MoSSBODS reranked nine teams this week and MoSHBODS 13. On MoSSBODS, five of those nine teams moved multiple spots, with Hawthorn climbing four spots, and Geelong and Adelaide climbing two, and Carlton falling six spots, and Fremantle two. Five teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with GWS climbing three spots, Geelong, Collingwood and Adelaide climbing two, and Carlton falling seven.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 15th are now separated by only 7.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 26 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 15th are separated by only 25 points.
Read MoreOnly three of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 22, and only the part-time contrarians in the form of the MoS trio and Consult the Ladder registered more than three from nine amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters. Full-time contrarian, Home Sweet Home, managed just two from nine.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg now three tips clear of RSMP_Simple at the head of the Leaderboard, and four clear of RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 3.4 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 115.3 from 189 (61%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 10 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 5 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dons by 12 points and Power by 19 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 11 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 29 and Eagles by 2 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on Round 22. Extreme in three games, but nothing outrageous.
There are some sizeable differences of opinion between the MoS twins again this week about likely Totals, differing by as much as 7 points in the Roos v Eagles game. MoSHBODS has the higher Total forecast of the pair in all but one game, and has an average expected Total 3 points per game higher than MoSSBODS.
That said, the bookmakers have, on average, even higher Totals expectations, and have come in a couple of points higher than MoSHBODS overall.
Read MoreNo game this week is expected to be won by more than 25 points, and seven of them are expected to be won by under 16 points, despite the fact that three games involve teams separated by 8 or more ladder positions. The six remaining games involve teams separated by no more than 4 ladder positions, two of which are the games with the largest lines. Once again, ladder position is a poor indicator of relative ability this year.
The all-game average expected margin is 14.4 points per game, which is up by about 3 points per game on last week.
Read MoreThe main questions this week were: how far will Sydney fall, and did the Lions do enough to take top spot on both or either Rating System?
For MoSSBODS, the answers were four spots to 6th and no, and for MoSHBODS they were six spots to 8th and also no.
MoSSBODS reranked 13 teams this week and MoSHBODS 12, which left agreement towards the top of the rankings only about the Dogs (1st), and Carlton (4th). MoSSBODS now prefers Port Adelaide for 2nd and Brisbane Lions for 3rd, while MoSHBODS has the same teams but in the opposite order.
Eight teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS, with Adelaide and Essendon both climbing four spots, GWS and Collingwood climbing three, Gold Coast falling two, St Kilda falling three, Sydney falling four, and Melbourne falling six. Eight teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with Port Adelaide and Essendon climbing four spots, Collingwood and Adelaide climbing two, Fremantle falling two, Melbourne three, St Kilda five, and Sydney six spots.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 6.8 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 4th and 15th are separated by only 16 points.
Read MoreFive of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 21, which was a round that saw all but three of its games decided by 13 points or fewer. In the head-to-head tipping, best was Home Sweet Home’s 8 and worst MoSSBODS_Marg’s 3.
Most scored 5, however, which was also the all-Tipster average for the round, taking the season-long figure to 111.8 from 180 (62%). Amongst the scorers of five were MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins, which left them, collectively, in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on the Leaderboard.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 6 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 1 point.
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 11 points and Power by 1 point.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 20 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 11 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 17 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 4 goals.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on Round 21.
There are some sizeable differences of opinion this week about likely Totals, quite notably between the MoS twins where MoSHBODS has higher expectations in every game but one, with the differences from MoSSBODS ranging as high as five points.
Read MoreMAFL is a website for ...
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2023, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
