2024 - Round 22 Results - Not Gonna Happen, I'm Afraid
/Only three of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 22, and only the part-time contrarians in the form of the MoS trio and Consult the Ladder registered more than three from nine amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters. Full-time contrarian, Home Sweet Home, managed just two from nine.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg now three tips clear of RSMP_Simple at the head of the Leaderboard, and four clear of RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 3.4 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 115.3 from 189 (61%).
Margin prediction was slightly less difficult this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from ENS_Linear’s 28.6 points per game to MoSSBODS_Marg’s 32.8 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 30.1 points per game, which is down by about 3 points per game on last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 26.9 points per game per predictor.
There were only two movements on the Leaderboard this week: with Bookie_9 and Bookie_Hcap swapping places (again!) and RSMP_Weighted and MoSHPlay_Marg doing the same.
The gap between 1st and 7th is now 75 points.
Log probability scores were all negative this week, but generally better for the bookie-based forecasters, and worst for MoSSBODS_Prob. Best was Bookie_OE, but Bookie_LPSO did enough to retain first place, and MoSHPlay_Prob did enough to retain second place, as did Bookie_RE to hold down third place,
WAGERING
Another week, another loss for Investors, this week courtesy of losses from all three Funds, and the eighth in the last ninth weeks.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by just under 5c, which leaves it down now by just over 31c on the season, that from a -10% ROT on a 3.0 turn.
