2024 - Team Ratings After Round 23
/MoSSBODS kept its Top 4 unchanged this week as Dogs, Power, Lions, and Hawks, while MoSHBODS continued to tinker, ending with the same four teams but ordered Dogs, Lions, Power, and Hawks.
Altogether MoSSBODS reranked 12 teams and MoSHBODS 15 in a continuation of the extraordinary levels of churn we’ve seen this season, thanks to the ridiculously close nature of the competition. On MoSSBODS, nine of those 12 teams moved multiple spots, the biggest movers being Carlton up 4 into 6th, St Kilda and Melbourne up 3 into 11th and 12th, and Geelong and Fremantle down 3 into 8th and 10th.
On MoSHBODS, 11 of the 15 teams moved multiple spots, including Carlton up 5 into 6th, Melbourne up 4 into 11th, and Geelong, Fremantle, and Adelaide, down 3 into 8th, 10th, and 13th.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 6 Scoring Shots (which is about 22 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 13th are separated by only 20 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9936 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.7 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Power, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Hawks. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Dogs, Power, and Hawks, and MoSHBODS now agrees.
MoSSBODS now has eight teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS now has 11. Also, MoSSBODS now has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now 12 also.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 9.8 scoring shots (about 36 points) and defensive ratings a range of 9.2 scoring shots (about 33 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 32 points and defensive ratings a range of about 33 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 23 (assuming they had one in their respective home and away season).
Western Bulldogs are now even closer to having a Rating in the top 10% of those that went on to play in a Grand Final, while Port Adelaide is the only Team in the top 50% (and then only just).
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 2), 5 are rated negatively on both (up 2), only 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 3), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.81, which is comfortable a season high.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, including lifting Sydney into 1st above Brisbane Lions.
Below them, Hawthorn rose 2 spots into 5th, Carlton rose 2 spots into 7th, and Melbourne rose 2 spots into 10th. As well, Geelong fell 3 spots into 9th, and Adelaide fell 2 spots into 12th. These were the only teams to move multiple spots.
Just on 27 Rating Points now separates 1st from 13th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 22 points.
By way of comparison, at the end of Round 23 last season, the gap between 1st and 13th was over 32 Rating Points, or roughly 26 points. Interestingly, Sydney’s and Brisbane Lions’ Rating of around 1,027 is about the same as Brisbane Lions’ and Melbourne’s Rating at the same time last season.
There are now 13 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Sydney (MARS aside) and Geelong
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 15, ahead of MoSSBODS with 5, and MoSHBODS with just 3.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and, Sydney.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 3 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 3 as well, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 10.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Sydney has the widest range of rankings at sixspots, and that there are four other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.
There are also now three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast.
