2024 - Round 24 : Turns Out There Are Rakes Everywhere

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Five of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by 14 points or fewer, and the other four by between about 20 and 50 points. For the former, the teams involved are separated by between 2 and 7 places on the ladder, and for the latter between 10 and 14 places on the ladder, except for the Lions v Dons game where the gap is 6 ladder spots but the expected margin is 6 goals.

The all-game average expected margin is 21.3 points per game, which is up by about four-and-a-half points per game on last week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week is confined to Home Sweet Home in two games, Consult the Ladder in two games, MoSHBODS_Marg in two games, and MoSSBODS_Marg in one.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week: Dogs v Giants (19 points), Hawks v Roos (18 points), Cats v Eagles and Dockers v Power (16 points), and Tigers v Suns (13 points).

MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_9 have Extreme Predictor status in four games each this week, and ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there three games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Dockers v Port (16% points), Dogs v Giants (15% points), and Tigers v Suns (12% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE have Extreme Predictor status in five games each this week, and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

The models continue to wager like hedge fund managers risking someone else’s money. Attempting to fulfil their dictates this week resulted in the following shenanigans:

  • Richmond: Wanted 4.1% at $1.90 +13.5. Eked out 2.8% at that price but only +12.5, and a futher 0.5% at $1.90 +11.5

  • Hawthorn: Wanted 5.6% at $1.90 -47.5. Arm-wrestled 1.4% at that price and line, 1.4% at $1.90 -48.5, and 2% at $1.90 -49.5

  • Western Bulldogs: Wanted 7% at $1.90 -13.5. Chiselled out 1.4% at that price and line, and 4.7% at $1.90 -15.5

  • Port Adelaide: Wanted 5.5% at $1.90 +3.5. Settled for 1,4% at that price and line, and 3.7% at $1.90 +2.5

In total, Investors have just over 13% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on four teams, and 23% of the original Line Fund on six teams, four of which are in common.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner reveals that Western Bulldogs carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win by 16 points or more and a loss represents 9.5% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by Port Adelaide (7.9%), Hawthorn (5.9%), Richmond (5.4%), Melbourne (3.6%), and thenAdelaide (2.6%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 16.5c, while a worst case set would snip over 18c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.