Apologies that this post is a little late this week but I have been travelling on business (and. frankly, if you’ve been waiting to see the models’ views before making your own bets, you’ve not been following along carefully enough).
Overall across this truncated round, the MoS twins have roughly the same expectations about likely average total scoring in Round 12, although there is, again, some variability of opinion about individual games.
Read MoreThis week is the first of the bye rounds and so offers only seven games for the forecasters to consider.
Amongst those seven we have:
Only one game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position
Two games where they’re separated by either four or five spots
Two games where they’re separated by exactly 9 spots
Two game where they’re separated by either 14 or 17 spots
On average, the opposing teams are separated by a whopping 8.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.97.
That average bookmaker expected margin is, as it was last week, 23.6 points per game, which is up by about two point on the all-time average for Round 12s. It drives the all-Season average up to 18 points per game.
Read MoreGeelong has finally surrendered top spot on both Systems, but to Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS and to Brisbane Lions on MoSHBODS.
In fact, whilst the Top 5 teams are the same on both Systems, only Geelong, now in 3rd, is in the same place on both.
In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big mover being St Kilda, who fell three spots on MoSHBODS into 10th. No other team moved by more than two spots on either System.
Read MoreOnly three of the bookmakers’ favourites won this week, which meant that MoSSBODS_Marg’s 4 from 9 was good enough to give it a share of the lead with MoSHBODS_Marg, both of them now on 67.5 from 99 (68%).
They are both two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Simple.
The all-Tipster average for the round was just 3.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 63.4 from 99 (64%).
Read MoreLions by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay
Tigers by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay
A quick MoSHPlay update for today’s games as I’m unlikely to be able to post once the finals teams are announced for at least some of the games.
MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 16 points and Dons by 38 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Cats by 37 points.
Saints by 19 points and Dees by 28 points, according to MoSHPlay
Swans by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 11
Overall, the MoS twins have roughly the same expectations about likely average total scoring in Round 11, although there are a few sizeable differences of opinion about individual games.
Read MoreThere are a large number of mismatches this week, if ladder position is anything to go by. We have:
Only one game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position
Five games where they’re separated by between six and nine spots
Two games where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly 16 spots
On average, the opposing teams are separated by a whopping 8.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.88.
That average bookmaker expected margin is, unsurprisingly, 23.6 points per game, which is up by over 8 points on the Round 10 average, and roughyl equal to the all-time average for Round 11s. It drives the all-Season average up to 17.6 points per game.
Read MoreGeelong has clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, with Port Adelaide taking 2nd on MoSSBODS and Brisbane Lions doing the same on MoSHBODS as Collingwood, despite winning, failed to impress either System and dropped Rating Points.
In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 10 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big movers being Western Bulldogs and Fremantle (both up 4 on MoSSBODS), and Adelaide (down 5 on MoSSBODS and down 4 on MoSHBODS).
Read MoreOn forecasting at least, the bookmaker-based tipsters and predictors had a little revenge this week, although one of the MoS trio still heads all three Leaderboards.
On Head-to-Head tipping, all nine Tipsters snagged 6 from 9, which of course meant there was no change in the Leaderboard ordering. MoSHBODS_Marg therefore still leads MoSSBODS_Marg by a single tip, and Bookie Knows best by two tips.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 6 from 9 and, for the season, now stands at 59.8 from 90 (67%).
Read MoreThe final teams announcement has moved MoSHPlay to Saints by 7 points
It’s the Pies by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay
It’s the Hawks by 32 points, according to MoSHPlay
Lions by 30 points and Tigers by 11, according to MoSHPlay
Cats by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points (and still Swans by 29 points)
MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 8 points
Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts about Round 10
Overall, the MoS twins are a little more pessimistic about scoring this week and have the all-game average about half-a-goal lower, though never more than a goal-and-a-half for any single game.
Read MoreIf ladder position is anything to go on, we have quite the round coming up next weekend where we have:
One game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position (sure, it’s 17th and 18th, and the expected margin is 4 goals, but still …)
Three games where they’re separated by exactly two spots (although one of those games has a six-and-a-half goal expected margin)
One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots
Two game where they’re separated by exactly eight spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly 10 spots (but the expected margin is only a goal)
On average, the opposing teams are separated by only 4.5 ladder spots this week, but the correlation between expected margin and ladder position difference is only +0.5.
The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 15.7 points per game, which is down by 7.5 points on the Round 9 average, and just under 8 points lower than the all-time average for Round 10s. It drives the all-Season average down to 17 points per game.
Read MoreRound 9 results left the Top 2 teams in tact on both Systems, although the Cats shed points on both Systems while the Pies shed them on MoSSBODS but gained them on MoSHBODS.
Further down, there was more movement on both, with Adelaide climbing three places, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast climbing two, and Essendon falling two spots on MoSSBODS. On MoSHBODS, Western Bulldogs climbed three spots, and Adelaide climbed two, while Sydney and St Kilda each fell by two places.
In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 also changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreThe MoS trio are still in the Top 3 spots on probability prediction, now fill three of the top five spots on margin prediction, and still hold the Top 2 spots on head-to-head tipping, despite a somewhat challenging round for forecasters.
Head-to-head tipping wasn’t too bad, with seven favourites taking the points, though MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were wrong in their lone contrarian tip, which saw them bag only 6 from 9 and surrender a tip to Bookie Knows Best. MoSHBODS_Marg reamins a tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, but is now only two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.2 from 9 and, for the season, it now stands at 53.8 from 81 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 33 points
Brisbane Lions by 26 points and Carlton by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay
Melbourne by 43 points, according to MoSHPlay
And Port Adelaide by 33 points, according to MoSHPlay
Swans by 21 points, according to MoSHPlay
Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts about the round
Overall, the MoS twins’ Totals forecasts are again quite similar to the bookmakers’ this week, but again also there is some disagreement at the individual game level.
Read MoreThis week’s fare includes two games with quite large handicaps that are between teams separated by only one or two ladder positions:
Richmond 16th vs West Coast 18th (Richmond -38.5)
Geelong 7th vs Adelaide 8th (Geelong -31.5)
For the remaining games, we have:
Two more games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder (where the starts are 2.5 and 10.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots (where the start is 17.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots (where the start is 14.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly ten spots (where the start is 16.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots (where the start is 17.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots (where the start is 37.5 points)
On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by just over 5 ladder spots.
The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 20.7 points per game, which is down by half a goal on the Round 7 average, and just over a point lower than the all-time average for Round 8s. It drives the all-Season average up to 16.4 points per game.
Read MoreRound 8 went pretty much to script and resulted in only two pairs of two team trading places on MoSSBODS, and just eight teams moving by a single spot on MoSHBODS.
The Top 3 on MoSSBODS is now Cats, Pies, and Dees, and on MoSHBODS is Cats, Pies, and Lions.
Read MoreThe MoS trio are still in the Top 3 spots on probability prediction, have returned to the Top 3 spots on margin prediction, but hold only the Top 2 spots on head-to-head tipping after MoSHPlay_Marg bagged only 8 from 9 in a round where all nine early market bookmaker favourites prevailed.
On head-to-head tipping, MoSHBODS_Marg still leads MoSSBODS_Marg by a single tip, but had its margin to Bookie Knows Best reduced by one tip to three.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 8.2 from 9 and, for the season, it now stands at 47.6 from 72 (66%).
Read MoreTo end the round, MoSHPlay has gone Saints by 41 points
It’s the Pies by 22 points, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay has it as Port Adelaide by just 7 points
MoSHPlay has it as Dogs by 12 points and Dockers by 14 points
Melbourne by 30 points, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay’s is going Blues by 7 points for tonight’s game (and has, thanks to an Excel formula error, revised its forecasts for the eight other games, too)
Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the round
MAFL is a website for ...
(For those not wanting to use PayPal, my email address below is now also a PayID)
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2025, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
