2023 - Round 10 Results - It'll Do
/On forecasting at least, the bookmaker-based tipsters and predictors had a little revenge this week, although one of the MoS trio still heads all three Leaderboards.
On Head-to-Head tipping, all nine Tipsters snagged 6 from 9, which of course meant there was no change in the Leaderboard ordering. MoSHBODS_Marg therefore still leads MoSSBODS_Marg by a single tip, and Bookie Knows best by two tips.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 6 from 9 and, for the season, now stands at 59.8 from 90 (67%).
The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) were driven up this week by the 116-point margin in the Hawthorn v West Coast game, but still only covered a range from Bookie_9’s 26.7 points per game to MoSSBODS_Marg’s 29.9 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 28.0 points per game per Predictor, which is over 5 points per game lower than the Round 9 average.
The Leaderboard saw only movement in the middle, with Bookie_3 snagging 3rd, and Bookie_LPSO 4th, dropping MoSHBODS_Marg into 5th, and MoSSBODS_Marg into 6th.
Log probability scores were, again, all moderately positive, with the best belonging to Bookie_LPSO and good enough to lift it into 3rd spot on the Leaderboard, driving MoSHBODS_Prob into 3rd. MoSSBODS_Prob retained 1st ahead of MoSHPlay_Prob.
WAGERING
It was black ink at last for the Combined Portfolio this week, despite a 1 from 4 performance from the Overs/Unders Fund.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio rose by 1.3c, snapping a three-round losing streak and leaving it up by 7.2c on the season, that from a 17.1% ROT on an 0.42 turn.
