2023 : Simulating the Finals After Round 26
/Brisbane Lions are, narrowly, most favoured, at about 1-in-3 chances, ahead of Collingwood and GWS both at about 3-in-10 chances.
These probabilities are quite different to the market’s partly because MoSHBODS has the Lions as stronger favourites against Carlton than the market does, and also has GWS as slight favourites over Collingwood.
Collingwood and GWS both win about 60% of the Grand Finals they make, while Brisbane Lions and Carlton only win about 40%.
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