2023 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 6
/There are still nine teams with about 3-in-5 or better chances of playing Finals, about a 1-in-4 or better chances of finishing Top 4, and about 1-in-30 or better chances of finishing as Minor Premiers.
Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:
Collingwood: roughly 95% chance of being a finalist; 75% chance of finishing Top 4; and 35% chance of being Minor Premier
St Kilda, Geelong, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions: roughly 75 to 85% chance of being finalists; 40 to 55% chances of finishing Top 4; and 10 to 14% chances of being Minor Premier
Port Adelaide, Sydney, Adelaide, and Essendon: roughly 60 to 65% chance of being finalists; 25 to 30% chance of finishing Top 4; and 3 to 4% chance of being Minor Premier
Western Bulldogs and Carlton: 45 to 50% chance of being finalists; 15 to 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and 2% chance of being Minor Premier
Richmond: 20% chance of being a finalist; 4% chance of finishing Top 4; and little chance of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast and Fremantle: roughly 8 to 10% chance of being finalists; 1 to 1.5% chance of finishing Top 4; and little to virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
GWS: 5% chance of being a finalist; little chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
West Coast, North Melbourne, and Hawthorn: 0.5 to 1% chance of being finalists; little to no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier