2023 : Simulating the Finals After Round 25

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The most-recent MoSHBODS-based hot simulations see Brisbane Lions and Collingwood as strong and near-equal Flag favourites.

Those most-recent simulations produce the probability estimates shown at right for the week at which each team will bow out of the race.

They split the six remaining teams into three groups:

  • Lions and Pies: roughly 1-in-3 for the Flag

  • Dees, Giants, and Power: roughly 1-in-10 for the Flag

  • Blues: roughly 1-in-20 for the Flag

Also, here are the estimated probabilities for each of the 9 possible Grand Final pairings, which range in value from about 9-in-20 to 3-in-200.

Brisbane Lions figure in the top three most-likely pairings and, indeed, are the team most likely to play in the Grand Final, according to MoSHBODS estimates. They only win about 33% of the Grand Finals they appear in, however, based on MoSHBODS’ assessment of their typical performance at the MCG, adjusted by who they are facing.

Collingwood appears in only the 1st, 4th and 5th most-likely parings and, in total appears in about 3-in-5 to Brisbane Lions’ almost 3-in-4. But, in contrast with the Lions, Collingwood win more than half of the Grand Finals they play in.

Melbourne appears in only the 4th and 6th most-likely pairings, and, in total, appears in just under 1-in-5 Grand Finals. However, it wins an even greater proportion of the Grand Finals in which it appears.

GWS and Carlton also win more than 50% of the Grand Finals they appear in, but Port Adelaide win less than 50%.