2023 : Simulating the Finals After Round 24

I’ve spent way too much time this past week reconciling the week-ahead MoSHBODS forecasts with the Week 1 outputs of my simulation code, but I have it to a point now where I think they are proverbially singing from the same input set.

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Those most-recent simulations produce the probability estimates shown at right for the week at which each team will bow out of the race.

The Flag estimates see Melbourne on top with about a 30% chance, an estimate that makes their current $4 market price seem quite attractive.

In contrast, Collingwood at $3.30 looks a long way short of value, as are Brisbane Lions, also at $4, Carlton at $12, and Sydney at $51.

GWS at $26, and St Kilda at $41 look like they might be a bit of fun but, unlike Melbourne, are very unlikely to delight.

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Finally, here are the estimated probabilities for each of the 26 possible Grand Final pairings, which range in value from about 2-in-9 to 1-in-1,000.

Brisbane Lions figure in five of the six most-likely pairings and, indeed, are the team most likely to play in the Grand Final, according to MoSHBODS estimates. They only win about 39% of the Grand Finals they appear in, however, based on MoSHBODS’ assessment of their typical performance at the MCG, adjusted by who they are facing.

Melbourne appears in only two of the six most-likely pairings but, in contrast with Brisbane, wins about 64% of the Grand Finals it plays in.

Port Adelaide also appear in two of the six most-likely pairings and win 44% of the time, while Collingwood appears in only one and win 56% of the time.

Looking at the teams without the double-chance, St Kilda, perhaps surprisingly, faces the Lions in 9% of Grand Finals, GWS faces the Lions in 6%, Carlton faces Melbourns in 4%, and Sydney faces Melbourne in 2%.

The most unlikely Grand Final matchup, according to MoSHBODS is a Lions v Swans pairing, which occurred in only 10 of the 10,000 simulation replicates.