Round 17 starts well, with the first five games expected to be won by about 3 goals or less, but threatens to disappoint after that with four games expected to be won by between about 20 and 44 points, three of which involve a team from the Top 8 playing a team from the Bottom 5.
The all-game average expected margin is 17.9 points per game.
Read MoreMoSSBODS reranked 13 teams this week, and MoSHBODS 15, but still have the same Top 6 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Collingwood.
Five teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS: GWS down 4, Essendon down 3, Hawthorn up 3, and Geelong and Adelaide up 2 each. Four moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS: Essendon down 3, GWS down 2, and Hawthorn and Adelaide up 2 each. After those moves, Essendon, despite sitting 4th on the competition ladder are now ranked 14th by both Systems.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 12th separated are now separated by just 4.6 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by just 15 points.
Read MoreOnly four of the nine early-week favourites were successful over the weekend, but ENS_Linear, the RSMP twins, and two of the MoS trio were contrarian just often enough to do better than that, which left MoSHPlay_Marg atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard but now by only one tip from the RSMP twins and two from MoSHBODS_Marg.
1st and 7th remain separated by just 3 tips, and the all-Tipster average for the round was 4.9 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 85.3 from 135 (63%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 8 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 36 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 6 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 5 points and Dons by 6 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Gold Coast by 4 points.
(Note that there have been changes to the preliminary forecasts to the remaining games because of previous input errors - I’d used the game order from the original fixture on one but not all of my spreadsheets. Should have had Dogs by 47 and Swnas by 30, too, but can’t change these now they’re published and the game has started)
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 39 points and Swans by 24 points (and has some updated preliminary views on the Sunday games).
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 37 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the round are below. At this point it’s extreme margin forecaster in five games, and extreme probability estimator also in five games.
The twins, relatively speaking, have some quite different opinions this week about likely Totals, whilst the bookmakers are, as usual, largely in agreement.
Overall, MoSHBODS is the most optimistic in terms of the average forecast Total.
Read MoreRound 16 offers a full menu of fixtures, with the Friday night entree a 10th v 9th affair somewhat remarkably expected to be won by almost 5 goals by the team in 10th. Saturday doesn’t start much better in terms of expected margins, with two more games forecast to be won by 4 or 5 goals, but it’s quality for the remainder of the day, with three near coin-toss games to fill the afternoon and evening. Sunday starts with another near pick ‘em before moving onto an expected 6 goal affair, and finishing with a contest forecast to be decided by a couple of goals.
The all-game average expected margin is 15.7 points per game in what is another highly bimodal round.
Read MoreMoSSBODS reranked eight teams again this week, and MoSHBODS only six, leaving them both now with the same Top 7 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Collingwood, Fremantle, and GWS.
Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (GWS up 2 into 7th, and Melbourne down 2 into 8th). Two also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS (Port Adelaide down 3 to 13th, and Hawthorn up 3 to 10th).
Ratings compression persists on both Systems, but is beginning to diminish, with MoSSBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by 5.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 20 points), and MoSHBODS’ 2nd and 12th separated by just under 20 points.
Read MoreAll six early-week favourites won this week, which meant that all but Consult the Ladder and Home Sweet Home tipped 6 from 6.
That made for zero movement on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, which now sees MoSHPlay_Marg on 78.5 from 120 (65%), one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Nest and MoSSBODS_Marg. The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.4 from 6, which took the season-long figure to 75.2 from 120 (63%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Essendon by 31 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 14 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at a contrarian Lions by a goal (and also has some new, preliminary views about the Sunday games).
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 8 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the upcoming round.
There’s some variability again this week between the twins’ and the bookmakers’ Total forecasts, but nothing in double digits, all of which has left the twins’ average about the same to a little higher than the bookmakers’.
Read MoreRound 15 is the last of the season’s truncated rounds, and its six games this week comprise four that are expected to be won by only about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two more that are expected to be won by about six-and-a-half goals. The all-game average expected margin is 16.7 points per game, which is not within a couple of points of any of the actual expected margins, demonstrating the lower utility of using means for bimodal data.
Read MoreMoSSBODS reranked just eight teams this week, and MoSHBODS only four, leaving them both now with the same Top 5 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Collingwood.
Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Western Bulldogs up 2 into 2nd, and Collingwood down 2 into 5th. None moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS.
Ratings compression persists on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by only 4.7 Scoring Shots (which is about 17 points), and MoSHBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by only just over 16 points.
Read MoreAll six early-week favourites won this week, which meant that all but Consult the Ladder and Home Sweet Home tipped 6 from 6.
That made for zero movement on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, which now sees MoSHPlay_Marg on 78.5 from 120 (65%), one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Nest and MoSSBODS_Marg. The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.4 from 6, which took the season-long figure to 75.2 from 120 (63%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Pies by 44 points (and has updated its preliminary view of the final game to Giants by 17 points).
MoSHPlay ends at Swans by 15 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Hawks by 14 points.
MoSHPlay has finished at Dogs by a goal.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the round’s six games.
There are a few more sizeable than usual differences between the twins’ and the bookmakers’ Total forecasts this week, all of which has left the twins’ average about 3 points below the bookmakers’.
Read MoreThere are only six games this week and a very mixed bag they are at that, with three games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and the remaining three expected to be won by between about 20 and 40 points.
Read MoreMoSSBODS reranked 10 teams again this week, but MoSHBODS reranked 12, leaving them both now with only the same Top 2 of Sydney and Brisbane Lions. MoSSBODS prefers Collingwood for 3rd, while MoSHBODS likes Western Bulldogs.
Only three teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Brisbane Lions up 3 into 2nd, Western Bulldogs down 2 into 4th, and Carlton down 2 into 5th) and three did likewise on MoSHBODS (Brisbane Lions up 3 into 2nd, Essendon up 2 into 11th, and Adelaide down 2 into 14th).
Ratings compression persists on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 1st and 12th separated by only 5.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 19 points), and MoSHBODS’ 1st and 12th separated by only just over 19 points.
Read MoreIt was another bad week for favourites, with just three of eight claiming victory, which allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to overtake Bookie Knows Best by one tip based on its 4 from 8 performance, and MoSHBODS_Marg to move up the Leaderboard with the same score.
MoSHPlay_Marg is now on 72.5 from 114 (64%), and the all-Tipster average for the round came in at 3.1 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 69.7 from 114 (61%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Dees by 2 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view on the Pies v Dees game (and it’s still and finally Blues by 9 points in tonight’s game).
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 29 points.
Some new, but still not final, MoSHPlay views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at a contrarian Hawks by 4 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.
No change to MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of Crows by 27 points tonight, but some initial preliminary views on most of the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday game is Crows by 27 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts is about 1 goal per game this week, despite the fact that the all-game averages are roughly equal at around 166 to 168 points per game.
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