2024 - Round 15 : Overs/Unders

There’s some variability again this week between the twins’ and the bookmakers’ Total forecasts, but nothing in double digits, all of which has left the twins’ average about the same to a little higher than the bookmakers’.

The debate this week amongst the four forecasters is again around the highest scoring game, and the lowest scoring team:.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: GWS v Sydney

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Carlton v Geelong

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Fremantle v Gold Coast

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: North Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have wagers in four games this week, two unders and two overs, each of which has been accommodated by a single bookmaker. They total 11.5% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are between about 5.5 and 9.5 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.7% to 4% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were solely with Sportsbet this week, an excellent rebound after missing out entirely last week:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet

Looking at the Errors section of this table, it’s interesting to note how well-calibrated, on average, all four forecasters have been so far this season. None of them has an average error greater than 1 point in absolute magnitude on any of the four metrics.

The season-long Game Totals title switched hands this week, with the TAB taking a narrow lead over MoSSBODS. The leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 20 points ahead of Sportsbet and 53 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 18 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 27 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 22 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 29 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: TAB 3 points ahead of the MoSSBODS and 4 points of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had wagers on five games last week - effectively two wagers though on the Lions v Suns game, each with a different bookmaker at a different line - one overs with the TAB that finished 0 and 1, three unders with the TAB that finished 0 and 3, and two unders with Sportsbet that finished 1 and 1.

It ended then, if we count the wagers on the Lions v Suns game as two separate wagers, at 16 and 23 with the TAB, and at 16 and 8 with Sportsbet, for an overall 32 and 31 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 2 from 6 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 63 from 120 (53%) against the TAB, and 65 from 120 (54%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed 2 from 6 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, which took it to 63 from 120 (53%) against the TAB, and 64 from 120 (53%) against Sportsbet.