2024 - Team Ratings After Round 3

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There’s probably been enough football played now by each of the teams that it’s meaningful to look at how the various MoS Team Rating Systems rate and rank them.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but none of them in the same position. MoSSBODS has Melbourne 1st, Port Adelaide 2nd, and GWS 3rd, while MoSHBODS has GWS 1st, Melbourne 2nd, and Port Adelaide 3rd.

On both Systems, however, the Ratings are quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 13th are separated by only 4.3 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 14.7 points.

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2024 - Round 4 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 16 points.

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at St Kilda by 1 point.

UPDATE 12NOON SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at GWS by 22 points.

UPDATE 7:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay is sticking with the Dogs, but only by 2 points.

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 5 points.

UPDATE 1:00PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 46 points.

UPDATE 7:30PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 24 points.

UPDATE 4:30PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 31 points.

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the rest of the round (and slightly amended view on tonight’s game, which is now Dees by 7 points).

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 6 points

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s initial view is Dees by 5 points

2024 - Round 3 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 8:15PM SUNDAY

Cats, but only by 5 points, is MoSHPlay’s initial thinking

UPDATE 11PM SATURDAY

Updated MoSHPlay thoughts on the Sunday games

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 3 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 5 points.

UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on all but the Monday game.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s ends at Lions by 20 points

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Lions by 16 points

2024 - Round 2 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 6:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 42 points.

UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 9 points.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 30 points.

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 11 points.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 23 points.

UPDATE 8PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remaining games, conditional on final squads being announced. Not straying far from its source, MoSHBODS, except in the Swans’ game.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 13 points

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary forecast is Pies by 11 points

2024 - Round 2 : Figures

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Five Round 2 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 2-and-a-half goals, two more by less than 4-and-a-half goals, and the eighth (which is all we have this week in the Season of Death By 100 Bye Rounds) by about 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is just under 20 points per game.

Home teams are favourites in only three of the eight contests, which is probably bad news for the ladder-leading Home Sweet Home.

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2024 - Round 1 Results - Still Mostly Fine

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I can’t yet exactly say why, but I just have this feeling that there’s something different about the 2024 season.

If nothing else, one of the definitely unusual features is the number of home team winners, of which there were 8 this week, one more than the number of early-week favourites.

In fact, all but Consult The Ladder and MoSHPlay_Marg recorded scores of 7 or 8 from 9, which left the all-Tipster average at 6.9 from 9.

Home Sweet Home currently heads the Leaderboard on 11 from 13 (85%) ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg on 10 from 13 (77%).

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2024 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 6:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has flipped and gone the Lions by 1 point

UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

It’s Port by 46 points, accoriding to MoSHPlay


UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends with it as Dees by 13 pointsU

UPDATE 7:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends with it as Suns by 9 points

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends with at Cats by 2 goals

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends with the Giants by 53 points (assuming Haynes and Shiels are the subs)

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at the underdog Hawks by 10 points

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay ends at the Pies by 14 points (subject to confirmation that the subs are Macrae and Wicks)

UPDATE 11:30PM THURSDAY

Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thinking on the remaining games in the round, pending team finalisations.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes by forecasting that the Blues will win by 7 points (subject to Mansell being conformed as the sub for the Tigers)

UPDATE 10:15PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay is a little less confident about the home team’s chance in the Thursday night game (although this might change when the final teams are named) and currently has the Blues winning by only 8 points

2024 - Round 1 : One More Than Zero

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Six Round 1 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, and a seventh by less than 20 points, leaving only two that are expected to be won by 7 goals or more. The average expected margin is just 17.4 points per game.

Home teams are favourites in eight of the nine contests, with Fremantle the only exception and that, of course, is great news for Home Sweet Home, who already finds himself in equal top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipping Leaderboard.

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2024 - Round 0 Results - A Fine Start

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The bookmakers did a reasonable job of tipping winners this week, missing out only in the Lions v Blues game and even there only by a point.

Home Sweet Home and the MoS trio shared top honours with BKB on Head-to-Head Tipping, whilst Consult The Ladder finished with a startling 0 from 4.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.3 from 4, which took the all-season accuracy to just over 58%.

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2024 - Round 0 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 15 points.

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 14 points.

UPDATE 8:30PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on the remaining games of the round (assuming that the average quality of the final 23s will be the same as the average quality of the currently named squads including the Interchanges but not the Emergencies).

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay has ended at Swans by 9 points


2024 - Round 0 : This Comp Goes All the Way to Zero

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Welcome back

The men’s 2024 AFL season starts off weirdly in at least three ways: there are only four games in the opening round, Carlton and Richmond don’t face one another, and the round is numbered 0.

There are, at this stage, four home team favourites, including the Giants over the 2023 Premiers by about half a goal. The strongest of the favourites are the Lions who are currently expected to defeat the Blues by just over 3 goals.

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