2022 - Round 16 : By How Much?

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Whereas last weekend was all about contests between teams quite proximate on the ladder, this week we have:

  • 1 game where the teams are one spot apart on the ladder (14 v 15)

  • 2 more games where the teams are four or five spots apart on the ladder (5 v 10, and 11 v 7)

  • 3 more games where the teams are seven or eight spots apart on the ladder (1 v 8, 9 v 17, and 4 v 12)

  • 3 more games where the teams are 10 or more spots apart on the ladder (16 v 6, 13 v 1, and 2 v 18)

That’s made for much higher TAB Bookmaker expected margins this week, including 3 of five goals or more. Only one game is expected to finish with a single-digit margin.

The overall average expected margin is 23,3 points per game, which is roughly average by general Round 16 standards, but nonetheless the highest since 2018. It raises the all-season average expected margin to 18.4 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There is scant contrarianism amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with only Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder offering any.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we have seven games registering double-digit forecast ranges, the largest being 28 points in the Cats v Roos game, followed by 24 points in the Crows v Dees game, and 22 points in the Tigers v Eagles game.

Altogether, Bookie_3 has the most extreme margin forecasts in six games, MoSSBODS_Marg in five and MoSHBODS_Marg in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is 15% points for the Adelaide v Melbourne game, followed by 12% points for the Richmond v West Coast game.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, and Bookie_LPSO in five.

WAGERS

There are only seven bets on four different teams this week, but the total at stake is significant. Four head-to-head bets together represent almost 14% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, dominated by a 10.5% wager on the Tigers at $1.19. There is some comfort that they’ve subsequently shortened to about $1.11 to $1.13 (not at all because of my wager).

Those four are complemented by three line bets totalling 6.4% of the original Line Fund, also dominated by a Tigers bet, here sized at just under 4% of the Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner for all this activity is shown below.

Most risk (as measured by the difference between the best- and worst-case outcomes) is comfortably carried by the Tigers where the potential swing is over 8c. Next is Adelaide with 3.6c, then Gold Coast with 1.3c, and finally Essendon with 1.1c.

Altogether a best set of results would increase the value of the Combined Portfolio by just over 6c, and a worst set would decrease it by just over 8c .

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.