2022 - Round 18 : A Lot Going On

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This week we have:

  • 1 game where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder

  • 4 games where they're between 3 and 5 places apart

  • 4 games where they're 9 or 10 places apart

That’s translated into five games that the TAB Bookmaker expects to have a single digit margin, two more with expected margins around two-and-a-half goals, one with an expected margin around 6.5 goals, and a final one with an expected margin around nine-and-a-half goals,

The overall average expected margin is 15.5 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 18 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s 15.4 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.1 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Five Head-to-Head Tipsters are, again, offering contrarian tips this week, with five from Home Sweet Home, one each from Consult The Ladder, ENS_Linear, and MoSHBODS_Marg, and two from MoSSBODS_Marg.

The Margin Predictors have double-digit forecast ranges in all but two games this week, the largest being 20 points in the Hawks v Eagles game, followed by 19 points in the Dogs v Saints, and Roos v Tigers games.

Altogether, Bookie_9 has the most extreme margin forecasts in six games, MoSHBODS_Marg in four, and Bookie_9 and MoSSBODS_Marg in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is 18% points for the Dogs v Saints game, followed by 17% points for the Dockers v Swans game.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, Bookie_RE in four, and Bookie_LPSO in three.

WAGERS

There are nine bets on five different teams this week, four head-to-head bets totalling almost 11% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and five line bets totalling almost 11% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner for this lot appears below, and shows that most risk (as measured by the difference between the best- and worst-case outcomes) is on Hawthorn’s shoulders this week, with the difference for them coming at 7.6c. Next comes Western Bulldogs on 4.9c, then Sydney on 2.5c, Adelaide on 2.4c and, finally, Essendon on 1.7c.


So, best case is a gain of 8.7c, and worst case a loss of 10.3c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.