It’s not often I wake up on a Monday and discover that the preparation I’d done the night before has been wasted because the games my models had forecasted are no longer the games being played.
But that, in a proverbial nutshell, is 2020.
Read MorePort Adelaide now tops, and Adelaide tails, both MoS Team Rating Systems.
In fact, the two Systems now have the same Top 3 and Bottom 4 teams, and disagree about the rest by no more than two places - and the difference is even that large only for Carlton, who are 7th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreNotwithstanding the 25% reduction in game length, which should logically lessen the likelihood of huge forecasting errors, sub-16 mean absolute errors (MAEs) are something to behold.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has it as Sydney by 4 for the Thursday night game
Read MoreWe’ve markets now for the Essendon v Carlton game and, as a result, have our first overs bet for the season. The overlay is just 7 points so we’ll be hoping that the forecast absence of rain is accurate.
So, with the Dons v Blues game now firmly on, and head-to-head and line markets now posted by the bookmakers, we can include that Saturday game in the mix.
The forecasts are as below and show the MoS twins both opting for the underdog Blues, and single-digit margins predictions across the board.
Read MoreLast week was another good one for MoS score forecasts, with the twins’ generally more pessimistic views about the level of scoring tending to prevail overall. This week the twins are, again, on average forecasting lower totals than the bookmakers.
Read MoreWith 26 games now played and a relatively low-scoring Round 3, the average score per team per game now stands at just over 65 points, which is just under 81% of the 80.4 points average for the 2019 home and season.
So, for now, the 80% adjustment to all forecasts stays in force.
Read MorePort Adelaide did just enough to retain its number 1 ranking on MoSSBODS this week, but not quite enough to do the same on MoSHBODS where Collingwood now hold down top spot.
Read MoreI’m not a fan of byes at the best of times, even less so when they’re announced mid-round, but it seemed fairly inevitable that at least one of the 400 plus players would test positive at some point during the 2020 season.
Regardless, the solid performance of the MoS trio made for a fun weekend.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has again forecast a close Thursday night game, this time opting for the Tigers by only 4 points over the Hawks.
Read MoreAll things considered, our over/under forecasts have been pretty good so far this season, so here’s another set of them for Round 3.
Read MoreIn the 18 games we’ve had so far, scoring has been about 85% of what it was in the corresponding fixtures last season, so it might be that, in a few weeks time, we revisit the assumption underpinning a lot of the model forecasts that scoring in 16-minute quarters will be 80% of that in 20-minute quarters. For now, though, the 80% assumption stands.
It’s also way too early to be making any calls about home ground advantage, so the implicit assumption that it too is 80% of its normal value also still applies.
Read MorePort Adelaide, with its 75-point win over Adelaide, completed its rapid rating climb over the weekend, moving from 3rd to 1st on both MoS Rating Systems.
Read MoreWhen Home Sweet Home (HSH) outtips Bookie Knows Best (BKB) you know it’s been a challenging week to tip winners.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has stayed very conservative for its first pick of the restarted season, opting for a 4 point Richmond victory, which is in line with all of the other Margin Predictors.
Read MoreBetting Totals in the current season, where we’re not even sure in advance how many, if any, fans will be allowed to attend any given game, must surely come close to a pathology. But, here we are, and here we apparently must …
Read MoreThere’s not a lot of data to estimate how well or poorly different teams play off the back of an 80-day break, but that hasn’t stopped all of the regular MoS models from trying it.
Read MoreWith football due back now in under 10 days, it’s time to make some decisions about how the MoS twins and MARS are going to treat 2020 results. While it’s not yet clear how much 16-minute quarters will ultimately affect team and total scoring, for the time being I’m going to assume the effects are linear and therefore gross-up scoring by 25%.
Read MoreThere are three games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSH2020’s by more than a goal:
Richmond v Carlton: MoSHPlay Tigers by 10; MoSH2020 Tigers by 17
Essendon v Fremantle: MoSHPlay Dons by 12; MoSH2020 Dons by 5
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Power by 30; MoSH2020 Power by 15
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