2020 - Round 4 : Same Again, Thanks

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With 26 games now played and a relatively low-scoring Round 3, the average score per team per game now stands at just over 65 points, which is just under 81% of the 80.4 points average for the 2019 home and season.

So, for now, the 80% adjustment to all forecasts stays in force.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

A scattering of contrarian tips this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, about 30% of them from Home Sweet Home, and one-half of them in the Sydney v Western Bulldogs game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are forecasts on either side of zero in three games, and, as now seems customary, narrow ranges for the margin forecasts. The widest margin of 17 points comes in the Power v Eagles game, and the narrowest in the Hawks v Roos game where it’s just 4 points.

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors just 9.0 points per game, which is once againeven smaller than the bookmaker’s average of 10.1 points per game.

Bookie_9 is the most extreme forecaster in five games this week, MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg in three each.

Lastly, turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Power v Eagles game where it’s 25% points, followed by the Swans v Dogs game where it’s 16%. In no other game is the range larger than 7% points.

Bookie_LPSO, MoSHBODS_Prob, and MoSSBODS_Prob all have the round's most extreme estimates in four contests.

WAGERS

Only five wagers again this week, three from the Head-to-Head Fund totalling 5.6% of that Fund, and two from the Line Fund totalling 3.7% of that Fund.

If you look closely, you’ll note that the head-to-head price I have for Port Adelaide at BetEasy is $1.77, but the price I’ve attached to the wager is only $1.74. That’s because, in the short time between my inputting the available prices, determing the bets and bet sizes, and entering them into BetEasy, the price for Port Adelaide must have moved by $0.03. That means, since we’re betting to win a fixed amount with our head-to-head wagers this year, that the bet size is slightly too small given the correct price.

By the time I’d realised this, Port Adelaide had dropped even further to $1.70, so we’re stuck with what we have.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Our five wagers are spread across only three teams, which has, of course, consolidated the risk. Port Adelaide carries most of it (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), with the difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them representing 5.2% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have St Kilda controlling a 1.9% swing, and Sydney 1.6%.

In total, 4.2% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 4.5%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.