At some point, the freakishly good start to the season's wagering had to end, and if this is as bad as it gets I think I'll be okay with that. (And, let's be honest, who says I get to choose?)
Read MoreAgain it's the Overs/Unders Fund that's most active this week, but I've no issue with that given its five from seven performance last weekend. For their parts, the Head-to-Head and Line Funds have chosen to battle on only three fronts and, in the Line Fund's case, with relatively small weaponry.
Read MoreThough it's hard to argue with the efficacy - so far - of the forecasting systems built using the ChiPS and MoSSBODS Team Ratings, I'm still getting used to how readily the two Systems are willing to adjust their opinions about a team on the basis of a single week's results.
Read MoreAfter an absurdly good start to Round 4 across Friday and Saturday, with a Head-to-Head bet on the Dons the only loser amongst four Head-to-Head, three Line and five Overs/Unders wagers, it seemed Investors' fortunes may have finally altered on Sunday when the first two Overs/Unders wagers ended up as losers. But then, in the last game of the round, the Roos rallied in the final term to land both the Head-to-Head and Line wagers on them, meaning that Sunday joined the lengthy list of profitable wagering days from this season.
Read MoreSuffice to say MoSSBODS has very different ideas from the TAB Bookmaker this week about the likely aggregate scores in the majority of the contests.
Read MoreThis week Investors have another opportunity to mull over the wisdom of MoS' willful blindness to team composition.
Read MoreAll of MoS' Team Rating Systems are still significantly recalibrating based on each weekend's results, which this week has seen MARS re-rank 9 teams and ChiPS re-rank 10, though only four by more than a single place in the case of MARS and just three for ChiPS.
Read MoreAs expected, there was a tapering in the profitability of wagering this week, but if a profit of almost 3c a round is the mean to which we'll be regressing all this season, I can very much live with that.
Read MoreAfter a good start to a season - and we have had a number of those before, not all of them portending the season to follow - it's nice when the main Fund algorithms avoid establishing an impromptu game of double-or-nothing with the bookmaker of choice and, instead, remain considered in their wagering.
Read MoreThe MoS Rating Systems are still in that phase of the season where they respond most to revealed form, which is why, for example, eight teams' MARS rankings and 10 teams' ChiPS rankings changed this week.
Read MoreI think that's about as good a round as it's healthy and realistic to hope for.
Read MoreWith just three days between the completion of the first round and the start of the second, it felt as though I was collecting the Fund's winnings from the Bookmaker with one hand and then passing it back to him to cover this week's wager with the other.
Read MoreThis year, as advised in this earlier blog, MoS will be tracking only (!) three Rating Systems, and will no longer be calculating Massey, Colley or ODM Ratings.
Two of the Systems that will be tracked are MARS and ChiPS, and their opinions of the Round 1 results appear in the table below. (That earlier blog provides information about how these two Team Rating Systems work, as well as information about MoSSBODS.)
Read MoreIt's a low bar, I acknowledge, but when you completely revamp your major predictive algorithms during the off-season, throwing away the predictive life-force granted you by access to bookmaker prices, I think it's reasonable to commence the new season merely hoping for an absence of profound regret.
Read MoreAlmost immediately after I'd posted Overs/Unders Update 1 this afternoon, the TAB framed Overs/Unders markets for the remaining eight games of the round, many of them with Totals that have subsequently appealed to the new Overs/Unders Fund.
Read MoreFor the time being, I'm going to do these Overs/Unders updates as separate blog posts since that will ensure e-mail subscribers receive overnight notification of them. I might change this practice if the updates become too frequent.
In this post I've only one Overs/Unders market to talk about, and that's for Thursday's Richmond v Carlton game, which opened on the TAB as $1.90 Over/$1.90 Under 175.5. With our forecasted total for this game being 161 points, we've taken the Unders with some alacrity. Our bet is 2% of the Fund, as will be all wagers in this market this season.
The weight of money so far seems to have been with us, the Total for this market having as of 4:30pm Wednesday been dropped to 172.5 points. Regrettably, there's only a 20% chance of rain. (I used to complain about cheering for a result and not a team, and now I'm reduced to BOM-watching and pondering the wisdom of pluvius insurance ...)
We're starting things a little earlier for Round 1 of this year, partly because the new Fund models don't require me to wait for complete bookmaker data to use as inputs, but mostly because I want to give myself time to adapt to the new rhythms of the season given the non-trivial changes in my approach.
Read MoreThis year MoS will calculate Team Ratings using three different Systems, all of them ELO-based
Read MoreI mentioned in the previous blog here on Wagers & Tips that the MoSSBODS Team Rating System (V2.0) will be used to power a Head-to-Head, a Margin and a Probability forecaster in 2016.
Read MoreDespite what the completely fictional critics, made up only for the purposes of this lead-in paragraph were saying, MatterOfStats will be returning for the 2016 AFL season.
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