2016 - Round 3 Results - Profitable Regression

As expected, there was a tapering in the profitability of wagering this week, but if a profit of almost 3c a round is the mean to which we'll be regressing all this season, I can very much live with that.

That profit might easily have been a little higher too if the Dogs had mustered just a single goal more, but we finished with the Head-to-Head Fund landing three wagers from four and growing by 4.2c, the Line Fund also landing three wagers for four and growing by 3.2c, and with the Overs/Unders Fund registering its now customary 50% record, landing two from four and dropping by 0.4c. In aggregate, the Overall Portfolio grew by 2.9c to be up now by 18c on the season.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

It was a happy week for MoS' Tipsters and Predictors too, the Head-to-Head Tipsters averaging 6.9 from 9, with Bookie Knows Best and RSMP_Weighted having the best of it with 8 from 9 performances, and C_Marg and the two ENS Tipsters recording the lowest scores, but still 6 from 9. Home Sweet Home still heads the Leaderboard, now on 21 from 27 (78%), one tip ahead of C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg.

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Amongst the Margin Predictors, Bookie_3's mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.4 points per game was best, but only good enough to leave it 5th on a very congested Leaderboard, which is headed up by C_Marg's 26.5 points per game season MAE. The all-Predictor average MAE this week was 21.3 points per game.

So far this season, the margin predictions of every Predictor have been good enough to identify the winner on the Line market in at least 52% of the contests. Bookie_LPSO has the best record, having identified 70% of winners.

The round's best Probability Predictor was MoSSBODS_Prob whose probability score was fractionally better than the three bookmaker-based Probability Predictors. As a result, MoSSBODS_Prob still heads the Leaderboard. C_Prob, while finishing with the worst probability score of the round, still lies in 2nd place.