2016 - Team Ratings After Round 1

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This year, as advised in this earlier blog, MoS will be tracking only (!) three Rating Systems, and will no longer be calculating Massey, Colley or ODM Ratings. 

Two of the Systems that will be tracked are MARS and ChiPS, and their opinions of the Round 1 results appear in the table below. (That earlier blog provides information about how these two Team Rating Systems work, as well as information about MoSSBODS.)

MARS re-ranked eight teams this week, promoting four and demoting four others. The Western Bulldogs climbed furthest, leaping from 10th to 6th, while Fremantle fell furthest, slipping from 5th to 10th. Even after all that reshuffling, however, the top 3 and seven of the bottom 8 teams held their positions.

ChiPS was even more active in its re-ranking - it, unlike MARS, making larger re-ratings for similar results in early rounds compared to later rounds - leaving only five teams unmoved. The remaining 13 teams rose or fell by between one and four ladder positions, the Western Bulldogs rising most (up four positions), and Fremantle falling most (down four positions). Sydney, who rose three places, moved into top spot on ChiPS Ratings.

(The two tables are, by the way, ordered in terms of MoSSBODS Combined Ratings, which appear below.)

One interesting feature of the week's ratings changes was that MARS rewarded one losing team with a ratings increase, Carlton, and ChiPS rewarded three, Adelaide, St Kilda and Carlton. These increases occurred because the losses by the respective teams were smaller than the Rating Systems expected.

All of that said, there are only four teams whose MARS and ChiPS rankings differ by more than two positions:

  • Sydney - ranked 3rd by MARS and 1st by ChiPS
  • Hawthorn - ranked 1st by MARS and 3rd by ChiPS
  • Port Adelaide - ranked 4th by MARS and 8th by ChiPS
  • St Kilda - ranked 16th by MARS and 13th by ChiPS

MoSSBODS, which, like ChiPS, tends to make larger adjustments in the early rounds of the season, re-ranked 14 teams this week on the basis of observed Offensive ability, 15 on the basis of observed Defensive ability, and 14 on the basis of the sum of those two abilities.

With the higher-than-average scores across the weekend, overall Defensive ratings declined and Offensive ratings rose across the competition, 13 teams seeing their Defensive rating decline in numerical terms, and only five seeing their Offensive rating decline in numerical terms.

Sydney had the largest jump in Offensive rating, which saw it climb to 2nd on that measure, while Essendon had the largest fall, slipping now into last. On Defence, the Gold Coast rose most, moving itself into 13th, and Collingwood fell most, drifting into 16th.

On the Combined measure, the Gold Coast saw the largest rating increase (up by 3 Scoring Shots and five places into 12th), while Essendon suffered the largest decline (down by 3 Scoring Shots and three places into last). West Coast remains the number 1 ranked team, overall, by MoSSBODS, and Sydney lies in 2nd ahead of Hawthorn. West Coast are ranked 1st on Offence, and Sydney 1st on Defence.

Another view of team rating changes during the week can be obtained by charting each team's before and after Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Teams that improved their Offensive and Defensive Ratings moved north-east on the chart (for example Sydney), and those whose Offensive and Defensive Ratings both fell moved south-west (for example Essendon).