2025 - Team Ratings After Round 4

/

With every team now having played at least three games, it feels an appropriate time to look at how the various MoS Team Rating Systems view the teams.

One thing to bear in mind this season is that MoSSBODS has been optimised to produce better game total forecasts, which will, in my experience, necessarily lessen its ability to forecast game margins well. It will also lead, as we’ll see, to quite different assessments of the 18 teams. In short, don’t expect the extremely high levels of correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS that we’ve grown used to in recent years.

That difference can be seen immediately when we look at the two System’s team ratings at the end of Round 4.

Whilst the two Systems have the same Top 6 teams, only Brisbane Lions in 2nd has the same ranking on both. MoSSBODS has the Dogs in 1st, while MoSHBODS has them in 5th, and MoSHBODS has the Hawks in 1st, while MoSSBODS has them 3rd.

Just underneath the top third we find , on MoSSBODS, Port Adelaide in 7th, who MoSHBODS rank 13th and, instead, has GWS in 7th.

Overall, there was considerable stability in the rankings from Round 3 to Round 4, however, with MoSSBODS moving only three teams by more than a single spot (and 11 teams by no spots at all), and MoSHBODS also moving only three teams by more than a single spot (and nine teams by no spots at all). The only team moving multiple places on both Systems was Adelaide, down 4 into 13th on MoSSBODS, and down 3 into 9th on MoSHBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.94 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.79 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

Recall that both Systems are now denominated in standard deviations - MoSHBODS in standard deviations of recent team scores, and MoSSBODS in standard deviations of recent team scoring shot tallies.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Crows, Cats, and Hawks. On defence, MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Hawks, Dogs, and Lions, while MoSHBODS has Hawks, Pies, and Lions.

MoSSBODS has 12 teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS has 13. MoSSBODS also has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has 11.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.1 standard deviations and defensive ratings a range of 1.2 standard deviations. Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 0.9 standard deviations and defensive ratings a range of about 1.1 standard deviations.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 10 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence, 5 are rated negatively on both, only 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence, and just 1 is rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.77.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 4s.

We can see that, at this stage of the season, no team is emerging as having exceptional talent with only Hawthorn sitting above the median Combined Rating for teams that went on to make their Grand Final.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked 8 teams this week, but left Brisbane Lions in 1st, Hawthorn in 2nd, and Geelong in 3rd.

Below them, GWS and Sydney moved into 4th and 5th at the expense of Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs.

Further down, Fremantle and Port Adelaide traded 12th and 13th, and Essendon and Melbourne traded 14th and 15th.

Just under 19 Rating Points now separates 1st from 13th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 15 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 4 last season, the gap between 1st and 13th was just under 27 Rating Points, or roughly 22 points. Melbourne was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,109.6, Gold Coast were 13th on 992.9, and West Coast were last on 957.1.

There are currently 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Port Adelaide (999.7), and Carlton (999.4) just missing out.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Carlton, Geelong (MoSSBODS aside), and Western Bulldogs (MARS aside)

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Gold Coast and Adelaide (MARS aside)

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 10, ahead of MARS with 8, and then MoSHBODS with just 5.

MoSSBODS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 6 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 5, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also only about 5.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide has the widest range of rankings at seven spots, and that there are six other teams whose rankings span more than two spots. All but one of these teams (Collingwood) has MoSSBODS defining one end of the range of rankings.

There are three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon, Melbourne, and West Coast.