2025 - Round 5 : Checkpoint 1

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We have only our second nine-game round this week, and it feels as though it signals the end of the first portion of the season, after which we’ll have some reasonable ideas about the most likely and most unlikely Finalists.

Two-thirds of the nine games are expected to be won by less than three goals, one by four goals, another by about five goals, and the remaining game by about five-and-a-half goals. All of which you might expect to make head-to-head tipping quite challenging.

Let’s see what the models make of the new nine.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Again, contrarianism is quite rare this week, with Home Sweet Homes 5 game contribution added to only once by ENS_Linear, and twice by MoSSBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six games, most notably 24 points in the Power v Hawks clash, 22 points in the Roos v Suns clash, and 18 points in the Tigers v Dockers, and Saints v Giants matchups.

MoSSBODS_Marg - who is quickly becoming the Home Sweet Home of margin prediction - has Extreme Predictor status in seven games this week, and Bookie_9 in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges including 24% points in the Power v Hawks game, 17% points in the Saints v Giants game, and 14% points in the Dogs v Lions game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in seven games, and Bookie_LPSO and Bookie_RE in four each.

WAGERS

This week, the Head-to-Head Fund has opted again for just three wagers, ranging in size from 1.1 to 2.5%, while the Line Fund has opted for five bets, three of them on the same teams that the Head-to-Head Fund has selected, and ranging in size from 0.4 to 4.6%.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

In total, just under 6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund is at risk, as is just under 13% of the original Line Fund.

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that St Kilda carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win, draw, or loss by 15 points and a loss by 16 points or more represents 5.7% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Port Adelaide carry 5.2% risk, Western Bulldogs 4.8%, Richmond 4.6%, and Carlton 0.5%.

That’s a much more even spread than we saw last weekend.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 11c, while a worst case set would snip just under 10c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.