2025 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders

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A full set of Totals markets have gone up very early this week and, consistent with MoS philosophy, we’ve wagered in these markets as soon as possible.

MoSSBODS this week disagrees with MoSHBODS on the Total for every game by amounts ranging from 1 point to 8 points. On average, however, across all nine games, MoSSBODS is one point higher than MoSHBODS.

The two bookmakers are, on average, about 4 points higher than MoSSBODS.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring teams and games are as follows:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: Adelaide v Geelong

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne v Gold Coast

Lowest Scoring Game

  • All: St Kilda v GWS

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoSHBODS: Gold Coast

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: Carlton (Sportsbet also Fremantle)

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

This week, Investors face just two unders wagers.

The estimated overlays in the two wagered-upon games are about 9 and 7 points, and the wager sizes are 3.6% and 2.6% accordingly.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was a better week for the MoS twins, as MoSSBODS took overall honours for Home Team Scores and Game Totals (hooray!), and MoSHBODS took overall honours for Game Margins. That left only Away Team Scores, which the TAB secured.

MoSHBODS still has the season-long outright lead on Home Scores, but has this week surrendered its Away Scores lead to the TAB, while the TAB held onto top spot on Game Margins and joined Sportsbet in top spot for Game Totals.

The leads are as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 9 points ahead of Sportsbet and MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 3 points ahead of the TAB and 7 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: the TAB 2 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 7 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet and the TAB 21 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 46 ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was only one bet last week - a collect with Sportsbet on unders. That left MoSSBODS with a 1 and 4 season-long performance against the TAB, and a 1 and 0 season-long perfomance against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the Total 4 times in 8 against the TAB and 5 times in 8 against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS managed 5 from 8 against both bookmakers.

That takes MoSSBODS to 13 from 35 (37%) against the TAB, and 13 from 35 (37%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 20 from 35 (57%) against the TAB, and 19 from 35 (54%) against Sportsbet.