2025 - Round 4 Results - Not Perfect, But It's Fine
/Round 4 was another entirely acceptable round, with seven of the early-week favourites getting up, leading to MoSHPlay, Bookie Knows Best, the RSMP twins, and ENS_Linear all registering that score on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard.
That left MoSHPlay a tip clear of the field on 29 from 35 (83%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 6.4 from 8, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 25.3 from 35 (72%).
Margin prediction was relatively easy again this week, but particularly so for RSMP_Simple, whose mean average error (MAE) of 17.4 points per game was about 0.2 points per game better than its twin, RSMP_Weighted. The all-Predictor average was just 18.9 points per game, and this was dragged up by MoSSBODS_Marg’s MAE of 20.6 points per game.
RSMP_Weighted now heads the Leaderboard ahead of RSMP_Simple, with ENS_Linear relegated to third. MoSHPlay_Marg has risen three places into 4th, just 14 points off the lead.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below.
Log probability scores were all positive again this week. Narrowly best was MoSHPlay_Prob, and worst was MoSSBODS_Prob.
MoSHBODS_Prob still heads the Leaderboard, MoSHPlay_Prob retains 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Prob retains 3rd.
WAGERING
The Over/Unders and Line Funds both returned profits this week, and those were large enough to offset the losses from the Head to Head Fund, which moved from profit to loss on the final game of the round.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished up by 4c, which makes it now up by 18c on the season, that from a 40% ROI on a 0.45 turn.
