2024 - Team Ratings After Round 7
/Although not reaching the same levels as last week, there was still quite a bit of movement on the MoS Team Rating System ladders this week, yet again heavily influenced by the compressed nature of those ratings. MoSSBODS reranked 12 teams, though only five by more than a single spot, and MoSHBODS reranked only eight, and just three by more than a single spot.
The multi-spot movers on both were GWS (up 3 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS), Sydney (up 2 on MoSSBODS and 3 on MoSHBODS), and Melbourne (down 2 on both).
At the end of it all the MoS twins still don’t agree about which team is 1st or 2nd, MoSSBODS having it as Blues and Cats, and MoSHBODS Cats and Blues.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.
Still, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9904 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.43 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Giants, Blues, and Swans, and MoSHBODS now concurring. On defence both Systems now have a Top 3 of Dees, Lions, and Dockers.
MoSSBODS now has only 7 teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS has 8. On the other hand, both Systems have 11 teams rated as above average on defence.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 7.
As you can see, there remain no standout teams so far this season.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (down 2), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 1), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.52, which is just a fraction lower than last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only 6 teams this week, leaving Geelong in 1st but swapping Sydney into 2nd at the expense of Melbourne..
The only teams that moved by more a single spot were Collingwood, up 2 into 7th, and Brisbane Lions, down 4 into 9th.
As we’ve seen for a while now, there is considerable Rating compression on MARS, with under 13 Rating Points separating 1st from 9th. Previous analyses have suggested that a MARS Rating Point is equivalent to roughly 0.75 points, so this gap equates to about 9.5 points.
There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda and Gold Coast rated just below 1,000.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Brisbane Lions
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 12, ahead of MoSSBODS with 8, and MoSHBODS with just 4.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Adelaide and Port Adelaide.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 5 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS only about 3, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 6 teams.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Carlton (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that there are now seven teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also two teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: North Melbourne and West Coast.
