2024 - Round 4 Results - Keepin' the Faith
/Early week favourites fared fantastically this week, with all nine taking the chocolates, albeit by 10 points or fewer in four of the games. Most Head-to-Head Tipsters, therefore, having mostly or entirely avoided contrarianism, registered eight or nine from nine, the obvious exception being Home Sweet Home. Bookie Knows Best remains atop the Leaderboard, now just one ahead of ENS_Linear and the RSMP twins, and two ahead of the MoS trio.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 26.7 from 38 (70%).
Margin prediction was very strong this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from MoSSBODS_Marg’s_3’s 15.2 points per game to Bookie_Hcap’s 18.9, with the all-Predictor average coming in at just 17 points per game, more than a goal below last week’s average.
That result kept Bookie_3 in top spot ahead of ENS_Linear and Bookie_LPSO, but dropped Bookie_Hcap back into 5th behind RSMP_Simple. MoSSBODS_Marg still fills the bottom spot, but now about 7-and-a-half goals off the lead.
Log probability scores were all hghly positive this week, but best for the bookie-based forecasters, leaving Bookie_LPSO in 1st place, ahead of Bookie_RE and then Bookie_OE. Best of the MoS trio is still MoSHPlay_Prob in 4th.
WAGERING
The final two games of the round, despite representing head-to-head losses, had suffiiciently large line wagers to allow Investors to enjoy their second-best single round return of the season and, more importantly, to return to profitability for the season as a whole.
The Overs/Unders and Line Funds both made good profits, which more than overcame the Head-to-Head Fund’s slightly unlucky 15c loss, which altogether meant that the Combined Portfolio finished up by 4.4c. It is now up by just under 2c on the season, that from a +2% ROT on a 0.88 turn.
