2024 - Round 5 : Return to Calm

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We return to eight-game rounds this week, with seven of the contests currently expected to be decided by between two and four goals, and the eighth by about 9 goals. That could well make for a number of upsets - in fact, the expected number of favourite wins is only 5.8 from 8. The average expected margin is 23.1 points per game and home teams are favourites in all but the last game of the round.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The Head-to-Head Predictors will hear no talk of upsets though this week, as only Home Sweet Home has provided any contrarian tips and even it only in a single game..

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in only three of the eight games, including 25 points in the Cats v Roos game, 12 points in the Giants v Saints game, and 10 points in the Eagles v Tigers game.

Bookie_3 and the MoS twins have Extreme Predictor status in four games this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Giants v Saints (11% points) and Cats v Roos (10% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_LPSO and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

Whilst there is a certain frisson when there is so much money at stake, it’s nice to take a breather now and again, and return to more normal levels of wagering..

This week Investors have five head-to-head bets totalling just over 8% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and three line bets totalling just over 10% of the Line Fund, as set out below.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that North Melbourne is carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week in that the difference between a Roos win and a loss by 56 points or more represents a swing of 10.4c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by St Kilda (4.7%), West Coast (4.1%), and then Melbourne and Hawthorn (both 1,3%).

Having wagered almost exclusively on underdogs, there is quantitatively more upside than downside this week, and a best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 13c, while a worst case set would snip almost 9c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.