2023 - Team Ratings After Round 7
/The Top 3 spots on both Systems remained unchanged this week, despite the Pies shedding Rating Points on both. We still have, therefore, Cats, Pies, and Dees as the Top 3 - as well as, now, the Lions in 4th.
Overall, 11 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 9 by MoSHBODS, five by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and just one by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. Only one team moved by more than two spots on MoSSBODS, and that same team was the only one to move by more than two spots on MoSHBODS: Carlton climbing 4 spots into 6th on MoSSBODS, and climbing 4 spots into 8th on MoSHBODS.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9910.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Cats, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Lions, and Dons, while on defence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Saints, and Cats, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Saints, Pies, and Cats.
To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 7 across V/AFL history.
Collingwood and Geelong, still, are the only teams that have Combined Ratings that are in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 3 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1). St Kilda continues to have a quite unusual pairing of offensive and defensive ratings.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.62, which is down a little on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 11 teams this week, and none of them from the Top 2 or Bottom 4.
Geelong remains top, ahead of Melbourne, with Brisbane Lions and Sydney swapping 3rd and 4th places.
The only team climbing multiple spots was Carlton, up three into 9th, and the only team falling multiple spots was Richmond, down two into 10th.
There are still 10 teams rated average or better-than-average by MARS, with Essendon on 999.4, and Adelaide on 998.3 only just missing that list.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at 73 Rating Points, which is up by about another 5 Rating Points on where it was last week. The gap between first and eighth now stands at just under 27 Rating Points, which is up about 2 Rating Points on last week.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: St Kilda
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong, Sydney, and Richmond
MARS this week again provides only the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for ten of the teams. MARS is especially different in terms of its Collingwood and Adelaide rankings.
MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for six of the teams, and MoSHBODS for none at all.
MoSHBODS and MARS now agree about the ranking of eight teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about six teams, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 12 teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, and Sydney (3 spots) have the widest range of rankings, while 14 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, and GWS, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
