2023 - Team Ratings After Round 4
/Another round of substantial reordering left Collingwood 1st on both Systems, but saw Geelong climb back into 2nd on MoSSBODS, and 3rd on MoSHBODS. Melbourne are now 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS, while Sydney are 4th on both Systems.
Overall, 15 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 12 by MoSHBODS, 5 by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and 6 by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. Only two teams moved by more than two spots, and that was Geelong climbing three spots into 2nd on MoSSBODS, and Richmond falling four spots into 12th also on MoSSBODS.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9866.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Cats, and Dees, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Dees and Cats, while on defence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Saints, and Dees, and MoSHBODS with Saints, Dees, and Pies.
To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 3 across V/AFL history.
Collingwood, Geelong, and Melbourne all have Combined Ratings that are in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final, with Collingwood knocking on the door of the Top Decile.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). You can see from the chart that Fremantle and St Kilda still have quite unusual pairings of fairly low offensive and fairly high defensive ratings.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.63, which is up a little on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only seven teams this week, and none of them from the Top 3 or the Bottom 3.
Melbourne remains top, ahead of Geelong and Sydney, withe Richmond slipping into 4th despite going down to the Dogs, thanks to the Lions’ solid victory over the now-5th Pies.
Further down we find the only team making a multiple-spot movement: Adelaide, up two spots, into 13th.
There are now 9 teams rated as better-than-average by MARS, with Fremantle on 999.9, Western Bulldogs on 999.7, and Essendon on 998.5 only just missing that list.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just over 55 Rating Points, which is up by about 4 Rating Points on where it was last week. The gap between first and eighth now stands at just under 20 Rating Points, which is up about 3 Rating Points compared to last week.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: St Kilda, Essendon, and North Melbourne
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong (and Collingwood and Port Adelaide if we ignore MARS, and Richmond if we ignore MoSSBODS).
MARS provides the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 13 of the teams. MARS is especially different in terms of its Collingwood and Richmond rankings.
MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for nine of the teams, and MoSHBODS for four.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Richmond (8 spots) has by far the widest range of rankings, while 13 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Gold Coast, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
