2023 - Round 5 : Still Looking for Signal

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This week, the overall average bookmaker expected margin has come in at 17.6 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.9, and a little lower than the all-time average for Round 5s.

That average includes six games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and three games expected to be won by more than 4 goals, and it drives the all-Season average up to just under 14 points per game.

Interestingly, if we look, instead, at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder

  • Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots

So, on to the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

It’s not a good week for the contrarian-lovers, with Home Sweet Home (whatever “Home” means in a round like this one where seven of the designated home teams are playing at an out-of-state venue) providing half of the fun, and the MoS twins and Consult The Ladder joining in for just a single game each.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six games, including 22 points in the Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne game, 17 points in the GWS v Hawthorn game, and 16 points in the Geelong v West Coast game.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the most extreme Predictor in four of the nine games, as is Bookie_3. No other Predictor manages to be the same in more than three games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are three games with double-digit percentage point ranges: Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne (18% points), GWS v Hawthorn (18% points), and Adelaide v Carlton (12% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in eight of the nine games, Bookie_LPSO in five, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

This week, there are four head-to-head wagers totalling almost 8% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers totalling just over 5% of the Line Fund. The head-to-head wagers range in size from 0.7% to 3.6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from 1.2% to 2.2% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Three of the four head-to-head, and all three of the line bets are on underdogs. In aggregate, all seven bets represent just under 6% of the original Combined Portfolio, as can be seen from the Ready Reckoner below.

Adelaide and GWS carry the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling to 2.7% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by North Melbourne (2.6%), then Port Adelaide (1.7%), then Richmond (1%) and, finally, Essendon (0.8%).

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by 5.6c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by 5.9c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.