2023 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders

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As is quickly becoming custom, the twins have again come in above the bookmakers on expected Totals, but this week by about a full goal per game.

This week’s highests and lowests data reflect higher levels of disagreement (including the bookmakers’ lowest-scoring game being MoSSBODS’ highest-scoring game, which is probably at least partly due to forecast rainfall):

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Sydney v GWS

  • MoSHBODS: Essendon v Geelong

  • Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v Fremantle

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v Port Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Sydney v GWS

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Hawthorn

  • Bookmakers: GWS

WAGERS

Investors have five wagers this week, having passed on a sixth due to forecast rain in the Swans v Giants game but, controversially, having accepted a bet in the Dons v Cats game despite the forecast of a “slight chance of rain”

The estimated overlay for the games wagered upon range from 8 to 9 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were shared around, with MoSSBODS taking Game Margins again, MoSHBODS taking Home Team Scores, and the TAB taking Away Team Scores and Total Scores.

MoSSBODS still holds the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, and MoSHBODS still for Away Team Scores, with Sportsbet retaining Game Totals but surrendering Home Team Scores to the TAB.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 4.9 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 7.5 points ahead of the TAB

Home Team Scores: TAB 10 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 40 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4.5 points ahead of the TAB and 5.4 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Game Totals: Sportsbet 14 points ahead of the TAB, and 37 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had five wagers last week, landing 2 from 3 against Sportsbet, but only 1 from 2 against the TAB.

That was a reasonable result given that, across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 3 from 9 result against the TAB, and 4 from 9 result against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS recorded a 4 from 9 result against the TAB, and 3 from 9 result against Sportsbet

That moved MoSSBODS to a 24 from 54 (44%) record against the TAB, and a 24 from 54 (44% ) record against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS now has a 27 from 54 (50%) record against the TAB, and a 26 from 54 (48%) record against Sportsbet.

I am no more convinced that Totals are predictable than I was at the start of the season.