2023 - Round 7 : Testing the Order

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I’ve been sensing that this might be one of the most competitive seasons in recent times and this week will test that observation as teams from far flung rungs of the competition ladder face one another.

We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly seven spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots

On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by almost 6 ladder spots. That’s quite large.

The gaps in quality are also reflected in the week’s average bookmaker expected margin of 23.8 points per game, which is up by almost a full goal on the Round 6 average, and which is almost 3 points higher than the all-time average for Round 7s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 16 points per game.

The week’s average includes four games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, four games expected to be won by between 4 and 6 goals, and one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

With the larger average expected margins, it’s unsurprising that this week’s underdog support comes solely from Home Sweet Home (3 games) and Consult The Ladder (2 games).

There is, though, considerable disagreement about margins. Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including a startling 26 points in the Melbourne v North Melbourne game, 15 points in the West Coast v Carlton game, and 14 points in the Brisbane Lions v Fremantle, and Sydney v GWS games.

Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in seven games this week, MoSSBODS_Marg in five, and MoSHBODS_Marg in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are also five games with double-digit percentage point ranges, including Sydney v GWS, Melbourne v North Melbourne, and West Coast v Carlton, all with 12% point ranges.

Bookie_LPSO has the most extreme probability estimates in six games this week, and the MoS twins in five games each.

WAGERS

This week, there are two head-to-head wagers totalling just over 2% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and five line wagers totalling just over 5% of the Line Fund. The head-to-head wagers are 0.6% and 1.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from 0.2% to 2.3% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

None of the wagers is on a favourite and, in aggregate, all seven bets represent just over 4% of the original Combined Portfolio.

Another live version of the Ready Reckoner this week:

PORT ADELAIDE

  • Lose by 13 points or less: 0.6% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.4c

  • Otherwise: -0.6% x 65% = -0.4c

FREMANTLE

  • Lose by 39 points or less: 0.9% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.5c

  • Otherwise: -0.9% x 65% = -0.6c

GWS

  • Lose by 25 points or less: 0.2% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.1c

  • Otherwise: -0.2% x 65% = -0.1c

NORTH MELBOURNE

  • Lose by 44 points or less: 2.3% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.3c

  • Otherwise: -2.3.2% x 65% = -1.5c

WEST COAST

  • Win: 0.6% x 3.35 x 30% + 1.2% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.3c

  • Draw: 0.6% x (4.35/2-1) x 30% + 1.2% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.9c

  • Lose by 1 to 27 points: -0.6% x 30% + 1.2% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.5c

  • Otherwise: -0.6% x 30% - 1.2% x 65% = -1.0c

ADELAIDE

  • Win: 1.5% x 1.35 x 30%= +0.6c

  • Draw: 1.5% x (2.35/2-1) x 30% = +0.1c

  • Otherwise: -1.5% x 30% = -0.4c

North Melbourne clearly carries the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling 2.8% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by West Coast (2.3%), then Fremantle (1.1%), and then Adelaide (1.0%).

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by 4.2c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by 4.4c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.